# Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for May 2026 be above 19.0¢

> Above 19.2¢ leads at 83%, runner-up 81% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/powerkwh
Updated: 2026-06-26T11:20:49.717Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Leader: Above 19.2¢ at 83%
- Runner-up: Above 19.6¢ at 81%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 19.2¢ | 83¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-price-of-electricity-per-kilowatt-hou-kalshi-kxpowerkwh-26jul14-t19.2 |
| Above 19.6¢ | 81¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-price-of-electricity-per-kilowatt-hou-kalshi-kxpowerkwh-26jul14-t19.6 |
| Above 19.4¢ | 79¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-price-of-electricity-per-kilowatt-hou-kalshi-kxpowerkwh-26jul14-t19.4 |
| Above 19.0¢ | 4¢ | −28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-price-of-electricity-per-kilowatt-hou-kalshi-kxpowerkwh-26jul14-t19.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 19.2¢ | Above 19.6¢ | Above 19.4¢ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 71 | 35 | 74 |
| 2026-06-12 | 55 | 45 | — |
| 2026-06-13 | 77 | 67 | 76 |
| 2026-06-19 | 87 | 84 | 80 |
| 2026-06-25 | 83 | 81 | 77 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Above 19.0¢ −88pp 94→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 19.0¢ +29pp 3→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 19.0¢ −28pp 32→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 19.2¢ −3pp 86→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above 19.4¢ −3pp 83→80¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether the U.S. city-average electricity price will exceed 19.0¢ per kilowatt-hour in May 2026. The 82% probability reflects expectations that prices will remain elevated above this threshold. Markets are pricing in persistent upward pressure on electricity costs, though the declining probabilities at higher price tiers (75% at 19.4¢, 64% at 19.6¢, 49% at 20.0¢) suggest meaningful uncertainty about how high prices will actually climb. The outcome will depend on natural gas prices, demand levels, generation capacity utilization, and any regulatory changes during the spring months. Electricity prices are settled based on actual EIA or other official data reported for May 2026, typically released in mid-June 2026. Market participants are essentially betting that current cost pressures remain significant enough to keep the city-average rate in the higher range rather than falling back below the 19.0¢ mark.

### Key factors

- Natural gas prices during April-May 2026 will be a primary driver, since gas typically fuels 30-40% of U.S. electricity generation and tracks closely with wholesale electricity costs
- Demand patterns in May (cooling-related usage) and prevailing generation capacity utilization across interconnects will determine whether supply constraints sustain high prices
- The probability gradient (82% at 19.0¢ down to 49% at 20.0¢) indicates markets see a clustering of outcomes in the 19.2-19.6¢ range rather than extreme highs or lows
- EIA will publish official May 2026 city-average electricity prices in mid-June 2026, creating a single unambiguous settlement date with no subjective interpretation required
- Renewable generation levels and fuel-mix availability during the period will affect marginal cost of electricity production and overall average pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/powerkwh
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=powerkwh

## License

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