# Will Bath Rugby win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 7 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/premchamp
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.937Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-06-20

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bath Rugby | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bath-rugby-win-the-gallagher-premiership-rugb-kalshi-kxpremchamp-26-bat |
| Gloucester Rugby | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gloucester-rugby-win-the-gallagher-premiershi-kalshi-kxpremchamp-26-glo |
| Harlequin FC | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harlequin-fc-win-the-gallagher-premiership-ru-kalshi-kxpremchamp-26-har |
| Leicester Tigers | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-leicester-tigers-win-the-gallagher-premiershi-kalshi-kxpremchamp-26-lei |
| Northampton Saints | 39¢ | +34pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-northampton-saints-win-the-gallagher-premiers-kalshi-kxpremchamp-26-nor |
| Sale Sharks | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sale-sharks-win-the-gallagher-premiership-rug-kalshi-kxpremchamp-26-sal |
| Newcastle Red Bulls | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-newcastle-red-bulls-win-the-gallagher-premier-kalshi-kxpremchamp-26-new |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | 7 |
| 2026-04-25 | 31 |
| 2026-05-01 | 20 |
| 2026-05-07 | 7 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Bath Rugby +4pp 7→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 10% probability indicates that Bath Rugby has roughly a 1-in-10 chance of winning the Gallagher Premiership Championship. This low valuation likely reflects Bath's recent competitive position within English rugby's top division. The probability could shift based on mid-season performance metrics—win-loss records, injury updates to key players, and head-to-head results against rival contenders. The 2025-26 Gallagher Premiership season culminates in playoffs and a championship match scheduled for late May or early June 2026, which will determine the winner and fully resolve this market. Teams currently favored have demonstrated stronger recent form or roster depth.

### Key factors

- Bath Rugby's league standings and points differential relative to playoff-contending teams as of late May 2026
- Injury status of Bath's key positional players heading into the playoff phase
- Historical performance variance: Bath's head-to-head records against the top 4 contenders in the current season
- Playoff bracket positioning: whether Bath qualifies for the knockout stages and which higher-ranked teams they would face
- Recent form trajectory: whether Bath is trending upward or downward in wins over the final regular-season weeks

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/premchamp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=premchamp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.