# Will Luke Humphries win the Premier League Darts

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 5 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/premdarts
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.742Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-12

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $503

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Littler | 49¢ | −1pp | $274 | kalshi | /markets/will-luke-littler-win-the-premier-league-darts-luk-kalshi-kxpremdarts-26-llit |
| Luke Humphries | 6¢ | ±0 | $104 | kalshi | /markets/will-luke-humphries-win-the-premier-league-darts-l-kalshi-kxpremdarts-26-lhum |
| Gerwyn Price | 7¢ | −2pp | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-gerwyn-price-win-the-premier-league-darts-ger-kalshi-kxpremdarts-26-gpri |
| Jonny Clayton | 7¢ | −6pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-jonny-clayton-win-the-premier-league-darts-jo-kalshi-kxpremdarts-26-jcla |
| Stephen Bunting | 7¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stephen-bunting-win-the-premier-league-darts-kalshi-kxpremdarts-26-sbun |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 22 |
| 2026-04-25 | 33 |
| 2026-05-02 | 51 |
| 2026-05-08 | 21 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Jonny Clayton −6pp 13→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Jonny Clayton +3pp 10→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Luke Humphries is currently priced at 19% to win the 2026 Premier League Darts, meaning the market estimates roughly a 1-in-5 chance he finishes as champion. Humphries' probability reflects his competitive position in professional darts relative to other top players in the tournament field. The current level is driven by his recent tournament performance, ranking position, and head-to-head matchup history against rivals. His probability will shift based on his results in upcoming Premier League matches throughout the season, with each week's performance providing new evidence about his form and consistency. The tournament concludes in May 2026, at which point the contract resolves based on the final standings.

### Key factors

- Humphries' recent tournament results and current world ranking position relative to other competitors
- Win-loss record in Premier League Darts matches during the 2026 season
- Average checkout percentage and three-dart average performance in league play
- Strength of schedule and head-to-head records against other top contenders in the field
- Whether injuries or form fluctuations affect his ability to maintain competitive performance through the season finale

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/premdarts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=premdarts

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.