# Will Manchester City win the English Premier League

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 17% across 6 contracts — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/premierleague
Updated: 2026-06-29T01:20:50.694Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-13

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $311

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 9¢ | +1pp | $279 | kalshi | /markets/will-chelsea-win-the-english-premier-league-chelse-kalshi-kxpremierleague-27-cfc |
| Arsenal | 37¢ | −1pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-arsenal-win-the-english-premier-league-arsena-kalshi-kxpremierleague-27-ars |
| Coventry City | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-coventry-city-win-the-english-premier-league-kalshi-kxpremierleague-27-cov |
| Liverpool | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-liverpool-win-the-english-premier-league-live-kalshi-kxpremierleague-27-lfc |
| Manchester City | 21¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-city-win-the-english-premier-leagu-kalshi-kxpremierleague-27-mci |
| Manchester United | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-united-win-the-english-premier-lea-kalshi-kxpremierleague-27-mun |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | 17 |
| 2026-06-15 | 17 |
| 2026-06-22 | 30 |
| 2026-06-28 | 19 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Manchester City is currently priced at 16% to win the English Premier League, indicating a significant decrease in their title prospects compared to historical performance. This probability reflects market expectations based on recent team performance, injury status, managerial continuity, and competitive positioning relative to Liverpool (8%), Arsenal (37%), and Chelsea (7%). The main factors driving this relatively low estimate are likely Manchester City's performance trajectory this season and how that compares to rival teams' strength. Key upcoming resolution points include the final matches of the current Premier League season, where points totals will become increasingly difficult to alter and teams' final standings will determine the winner.

### Key factors

- Manchester City's current points total and goal differential compared to Liverpool and Arsenal as of mid-June 2026
- Win rate and remaining fixtures: how many games Manchester City has left versus direct title competitors and relative difficulty of those fixtures
- Recent form and consistency: Manchester City's performance in the last 10-15 matches relative to their historical seasonal average
- Squad depth and injury status: availability of key players and whether critical absences are temporary or season-long
- Historical odds correlation: whether this 16% figure aligns with Manchester City's actual points gap to the leader and mathematical probability of closing it

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/premierleague
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=premierleague

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.