# Will Team USA win the Presidents Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 3 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/prescup
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.314Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-11

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team USA | 74¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-team-usa-win-the-presidents-cup-team-usa-kalshi-kxprescup-26-usa |
| Team World | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-team-world-win-the-presidents-cup-team-world-kalshi-kxprescup-26-world |
| Tie | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-team-usa-and-team-world-tie-in-the-presidents-kalshi-kxprescup-26-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 3 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 29% probability reflects market expectations that Team USA will win the Presidents Cup golf tournament. The market is pricing in Team World as the favorite, based on recent competitive balance between the teams and home-course advantages that vary by tournament location. The Presidents Cup typically occurs biennially in odd-numbered years; the upcoming event date and venue will be the primary catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, as host-nation advantages and current player form significantly influence outcomes. Team composition, recent performance metrics, and head-to-head records between teams historically drive pricing shifts in the weeks leading to the event.

### Key factors

- Presidents Cup matchups have shown competitive balance in recent years, with neither team establishing consistent dominance—recent tournament results would indicate if one side has gained an advantage
- Home-course effects materially impact team sports outcomes; the tournament venue location (whether held in the U.S., International, or neutral ground) directly affects win probability
- Current world golf rankings and player availability determine roster strength; injuries, form changes, or ranking shifts among top 50 players would move probability estimates
- Historical head-to-head records between Teams USA and World provide baseline reference points; recent matches have ranged from close competitions to decisive margins
- Tournament timing and preparation windows affect performance; proximity to major championships and player fatigue levels influence competitive readiness

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/prescup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=prescup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.