# Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/presidential-election-winner-2028-jd-vance
Updated: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 17¢ | +1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-jd-vance-polymarket-0x7ad403c3508f8e3912940fd1a913f227591145ca0614074208e0b962d5fcc422 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 18 |
| 2026-06-03 | 16 |
| 2026-06-08 | 15 |
| 2026-06-17 | 17 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that J.D. Vance, the current Vice President, will win the 2028 presidential election at 21 cents. The market appears to distinguish between Vance's chances of winning the general election versus his likelihood of securing the Republican nomination (priced at 39 cents), suggesting traders view his path to the presidency as narrower than his path to becoming the party's nominee. Key drivers of this probability include his standing within the Republican Party, potential primary competition, and general election dynamics. The actual 2028 general election on November 5th will ultimately resolve this contract, though major political events, candidate announcements, or significant shifts in approval ratings between now and then could materially move the market's assessment of his viability.

### Key factors

- Vance's Republican nomination probability (39¢) significantly exceeds his general election probability (21¢), indicating market skepticism about his general election competitiveness relative to securing the nomination
- Donald Trump's general election probability is priced at 3¢, substantially lower than Vance's, suggesting markets view Vance as potentially more viable in a general election matchup despite Trump's prior presidency
- The Republican nominee contract will resolve before the general election contract, providing intermediate data on whether Vance actually becomes the party's nominee—a prerequisite for his 21¢ general election probability
- Relative to other Democratic and Republican candidates priced on the market, Vance ranks among the top five candidates but trails multiple competitors, indicating distributed rather than concentrated expectations
- Historical incumbent party performance and approval ratings through 2027-2028 will influence whether voters prefer continuity via the sitting VP or seek change through opposition candidates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/presidential-election-winner-2028-jd-vance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=presidential-election-winner-2028-jd-vance
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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