# Presidential Election Winner 2028

> Closed. Last odds frozen 18 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/presidential-election-winner-2028
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Leader: JD Vance at 17%
- Runner-up: Marco Rubio at 16%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $28K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 17¢ | +1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-jd-vance-polymarket-0x7ad403c3508f8e3912940fd1a913f227591145ca0614074208e0b962d5fcc422 |
| Marco Rubio | 16¢ | +1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-marco-rubio-polymarket-0x2053d8515f1b8cbeea4ccdb56e60e89c2617e43a8660d95166b8e71d27865277 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | JD Vance | Marco Rubio |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | — | 13 |
| 2026-05-25 | 18 | 13 |
| 2026-06-03 | 16 | — |
| 2026-06-06 | — | 17 |
| 2026-06-08 | 15 | 16 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-14 | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-17 | 17 | — |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Gavin Newsom has an 18% chance of winning the 2028 U.S. presidential election. The current level suggests traders view him as a meaningful but not dominant contender among potential candidates. Market prices reflect uncertainty about candidate field formation, primary outcomes, and general election dynamics still years away. Key drivers of this probability include Newsom's recent national profile and policy positions, weighed against questions about primary viability and general election electability. The field remains highly fragmented, with the top candidate claiming only 18% odds—indicating substantial uncertainty. Upcoming factors that could shift these odds include formal candidate announcements, major legislative outcomes, economic data affecting incumbent party prospects, and early primary voting when it occurs in 2027-2028.

### Key factors

- Newsom's 18% probability ranks first among six tracked candidates, yet represents only 18 cents on the dollar, indicating very high uncertainty about the eventual nominee
- Trading volume on Newsom contracts ($27,375 in 24 hours) is substantial but comparable to other candidates, suggesting reasoned disagreement rather than consensus
- The contract structure captures only six specific individuals; market-wide probabilities for 'any Democrat' or 'any Republican' would show how much uncertainty derives from candidate selection versus general election factors
- No scheduled primary voting occurs until early 2027, meaning current pricing reflects long-term expectations about candidate viability and party dynamics rather than near-term electoral data
- Newsom's proximity to Trump (3¢) and Carlson (4¢) in market odds suggests these contracts price narrative momentum and media attention as much as structural electoral advantages

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/presidential-election-winner-2028
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=presidential-election-winner-2028
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.