# Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 10 contracts — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/presnomd
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:07.354Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $74K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg | 5¢ | −1pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-buttigieg-be-the-democratic-presidential-kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-pb |
| Rahm Emanuel | 5¢ | −1pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-rahm-emanuel-be-the-democratic-presidential-n-kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-rema |
| Gavin Newsom | 21¢ | −1pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-newsom-be-the-democratic-presidential-n-kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-gn |
| Andy Beshear | 4¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-andy-beshear-be-the-democratic-presidential-n-kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-ab |
| Jon Ossoff | 8¢ | −1pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-jon-ossoff-be-the-democratic-presidential-nom-kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-joss |
| Kamala Harris | 8¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-kamala-harris-be-the-democratic-presidential-kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-kh |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 10¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-be-the-democratic-pr-kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-aoc |
| Josh Shapiro | 5¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-shapiro-be-the-democratic-presidential-n-kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-js |
| J.B. Pritzker | 4¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-jb-pritzker-be-the-democratic-presidential-no-kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-jbp |
| Mark Kelly | 3¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-kelly-be-the-democratic-presidential-nom-kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-mk |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 13 |
| 2026-05-25 | 6 |
| 2026-06-01 | 12 |
| 2026-06-07 | 10 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 8% probability reflects the likelihood that James Talarico, a Texas state representative, becomes the Democratic Party's presidential nominee in 2028. The current valuation sits between established figures like Kamala Harris (10%) and mid-tier candidates like Jon Ossoff (8%), suggesting markets see him as a long-shot contender. Talarico's relatively low probability reflects limited national prominence compared to governors, senators, and sitting vice presidents typically considered frontrunners. The main factors driving this level are his lack of executive experience at the federal level and lower name recognition outside Texas. The probability would increase if he gains significant media attention, wins statewide office, or performs notably in early primary contests. Primary election results in Iowa and New Hampshire in early 2028 will serve as major catalysts for resolving uncertainty about all Democratic candidates' viability, including lesser-known figures like Talarico.

### Key factors

- Talarico holds a Texas state house seat with no statewide or federal executive experience, distinguishing him from higher-probability candidates who are governors or senators
- His 8% probability matches Jon Ossoff's despite Ossoff being a sitting U.S. Senator, suggesting limited market confidence in Talarico's nomination prospects
- Primary elections in Iowa (early February 2028) and New Hampshire will provide concrete evidence of candidate viability and voter support
- The Democratic nominee will likely emerge from established national figures, with the top five long-shot candidates (Harris, Ossoff, Kelly, Emanuel, Pritzker) collectively representing similar odds to fringe candidates
- Talarico would need significant intervening events—major legislative achievement, statewide campaign success, or breakthrough national media presence—to materially shift his probability upward

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/presnomd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=presnomd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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