# Who will win the next presidential election

> Marco Rubio leads at 19%, runner-up 18% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/presperson
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.086Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2029-11-07

## Headline

- Leader: Marco Rubio at 19%
- Runner-up: J.D. Vance at 18%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $46K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 19¢ | +2pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-marco-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-mrub |
| J.D. Vance | 18¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-jd-van-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-jvan |
| Gavin Newsom | 13¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-gavin-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-gnews |
| Jon Ossoff | 8¢ | ±0 | $856 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-jon-os-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-joss |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 7¢ | ±0 | $12K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-alexan-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-aoca |
| Kamala Harris | 5¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-kamala-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-khar |
| Andy Beshear | 3¢ | — | $6K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-andy-b-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-abes |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3¢ | — | $881 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-pete-b-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-pbut |
| Donald J. Trump | 3¢ | ±0 | $436 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-donald-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-dtru |
| Josh Shapiro | 3¢ | — | $83 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-josh-s-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-jsha |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Marco Rubio | J.D. Vance | Gavin Newsom |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | 17 | 15 |
| 2026-06-05 | 18 | — | — |
| 2026-06-09 | 18 | 15 | — |
| 2026-06-12 | — | — | 13 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 16 | — |
| 2026-06-20 | 16 | 18 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 19 | 17 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 18 | — |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

J.D. Vance is currently priced at 18% to win the 2028 presidential election, making him the leading candidate among markets tracking this outcome. This probability reflects traders' assessment of his viability as a general election candidate relative to other potential nominees from both parties. The current level is influenced by Vance's position within Republican politics and market perception of Democratic alternatives. Near-term factors that could shift this probability include major political developments, polling changes, or clarifying events regarding other candidates' viability. The outcome ultimately depends on nomination contests in 2028 and subsequent general election dynamics, though the market currently suggests substantial uncertainty with multiple candidates clustered in the 15-18% range.

### Key factors

- J.D. Vance's 18% price is only 2 percentage points ahead of Gavin Newsom (16%) and 3 points above Marco Rubio (15%), indicating high fragmentation rather than consensus favorite
- 24-hour trading volume for Newsom ($11,963) significantly exceeds volume for Vance ($7,677), suggesting more active positioning in alternative candidates
- The combined price of top five candidates totals roughly 57%, leaving 43% for all other potential nominees—indicating material uncertainty about the eventual nominee
- Donald Trump is priced at only 3% despite recent political prominence, while Kamala Harris is at 5%, showing markets heavily discount recent officeholders
- The 2028 nomination contests have not yet occurred, and no formal candidacies are established, making current prices highly responsive to political developments and early polling shifts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/presperson
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=presperson
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.