# Who will win the next Taiwanese presidential election

> William Lai leads at 65%, runner-up 5% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/prestaiwan
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.504Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-30

## Headline

- Leader: William Lai at 65%
- Runner-up: Hou Yu-ih at 5%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Lai | 65¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-taiwanese-presidential-elect-kalshi-kxprestaiwan-28-wlai |
| Hou Yu-ih | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-taiwanese-presidential-elect-kalshi-kxprestaiwan-28-hyui |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | William Lai | Hou Yu-ih |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 64 | 8 |
| 2026-04-23 | — | 4 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 5 |
| 2026-04-27 | 64 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 65 | — |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/prestaiwan
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=prestaiwan
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.