# Will Ken Paxton win Harris County

> Harris leads at 63%, runner-up 54% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primarycounty
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.162Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-26

## Headline

- Leader: Harris at 63%
- Runner-up: Bexar at 54%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | 63¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ken-paxton-win-harris-county-harris-kalshi-kxprimarycounty-senatetxr26-har |
| Bexar | 54¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ken-paxton-win-bexar-county-bexar-kalshi-kxprimarycounty-senatetxr26-bex |
| Tarrant | 36¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ken-paxton-win-tarrant-county-tarrant-kalshi-kxprimarycounty-senatetxr26-tar |
| El Paso | 32¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ken-paxton-win-el-paso-county-el-paso-kalshi-kxprimarycounty-senatetxr26-elp |
| Dallas | 9¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ken-paxton-win-dallas-county-dallas-kalshi-kxprimarycounty-senatetxr26-dal |
| Travis | 6¢ | +3pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-ken-paxton-win-travis-county-travis-kalshi-kxprimarycounty-senatetxr26-tra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Harris | Bexar | Tarrant |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 64 | 53 | 44 |
| 2026-04-13 | — | 51 | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 61 | — | 37 |
| 2026-04-30 | 63 | 54 | 36 |
| 2026-05-01 | — | 54 | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Dallas −4pp 13→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · El Paso −3pp 35→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the probability that Ken Paxton wins Harris County in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary at 63%, based on pricing from multiple prediction contracts. The estimate reflects uncertainty about whether Paxton, the current Texas Attorney General, will secure victory in Texas's largest urban county during the Republican primary phase. Factors driving the current probability include Paxton's existing name recognition and political standing versus potential primary challengers, combined with Harris County's competitive electoral dynamics. The primary election itself will definitively resolve this market, as actual vote totals and county-level results become official. Between now and the election, polling data, campaign spending reports, endorsements, and primary debate performances could significantly shift expectations. Primary election day and subsequent official Harris County results certification represent the key catalyst that will determine the outcome.

### Key factors

- Paxton's current approval ratings and name recognition among Harris County Republicans versus main primary competitors
- Historical voting patterns in Harris County Republican primaries, including regional turnout and candidate performance trends
- Official Harris County primary election results on election day, which will definitively resolve the market
- Campaign spending and resource allocation in Harris County compared to challenger investments
- Public polling data released before the primary showing candidate preference levels among Harris County GOP primary voters

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primarycounty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=primarycounty

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.