# Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%

> Andy Biggs, ≥35% leads at 83%, runner-up 81% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primarymov
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:48.794Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-04

## Headline

- Leader: Andy Biggs, ≥35% at 83%
- Runner-up: Andy Biggs, ≥30% at 81%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Biggs, ≥35% | 83¢ | −7pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-andy-biggs-in-the-2-kalshi-kxprimarymov-govaznomr26-abig-p67 |
| Andy Biggs, ≥30% | 81¢ | ±0 | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-andy-biggs-in-the-2-kalshi-kxprimarymov-govaznomr26-abig-p65 |
| Andy Biggs, ≥40% | 76¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-andy-biggs-in-the-2-kalshi-kxprimarymov-govaznomr26-abig-p70 |
| Julia Letlow, ≥3% | 68¢ | −9pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-julia-letlow-in-the-kalshi-kxprimarymov-senatelar26-jlet-p51 |
| Julia Letlow, ≥6% | 56¢ | +9pp | $367 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-julia-letlow-in-the-kalshi-kxprimarymov-senatelar26-jlet-p53 |
| Julia Letlow, ≥9% | 40¢ | +15pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-julia-letlow-in-the-kalshi-kxprimarymov-senatelar26-jlet-p54 |
| Abdul El-Sayed, ≥15% | 33¢ | +2pp | $250 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-abdul-el-sayed-in-t-kalshi-kxprimarymov-kxsenatemid26-aels-p57 |
| Julia Letlow, ≥12% | 24¢ | −12pp | $596 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-julia-letlow-in-the-kalshi-kxprimarymov-senatelar26-jlet-p56 |
| Julia Letlow, ≥15% | 15¢ | −10pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-julia-letlow-in-the-kalshi-kxprimarymov-senatelar26-jlet-p57 |
| Julia Letlow, ≥20% | 6¢ | +5pp | $118 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-julia-letlow-in-the-kalshi-kxprimarymov-senatelar26-jlet-p60 |
| Brad Lander, 10-15% | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-brad-lander-in-the-kalshi-kxprimarymov-ny10d26-blan-p12 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Andy Biggs, ≥35% | Andy Biggs, ≥30% | Andy Biggs, ≥40% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | 87 | 88 | 86 |
| 2026-06-23 | 90 | 89 | 87 |
| 2026-06-25 | 83 | 80 | 76 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 80 | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Julia Letlow, ≥12% +21pp 13→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Julia Letlow, ≥15% +16pp 8→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Julia Letlow, ≥6% +16pp 47→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Julia Letlow, ≥9% +15pp 30→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Julia Letlow, ≥3% +15pp 65→80¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Graham Platner will win the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary with a margin between 30% and 40%. The 79% price suggests high confidence in this outcome occurring, though notably lower conviction than some other electoral markets. The primary driver of this probability is likely Platner's current positioning and name recognition within Maine's Democratic electorate, while uncertainty around late-breaking endorsements, turnout patterns, and competing candidates could shift the margin significantly. The resolution will depend on the actual vote distribution when Maine holds its primary election. Key factors that would move this probability include shifts in recent polling data on Platner's support levels, changes in the primary field that alter competitive dynamics, and any substantial campaign developments affecting voter enthusiasm or consolidation around alternatives.

### Key factors

- Platner's current polling margin relative to nearest challenger and the stability of that lead
- Turnout expectations in a Maine Democratic primary and whether that favors any particular candidate
- Whether late endorsements or campaign events consolidate support around Platner or fragment the vote
- The number and viability of competing candidates remaining in the race
- Changes in registered Democratic voter composition or turnout modeling that could affect final margin distribution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primarymov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=primarymov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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