# Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least 6%

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primarymovd
Updated: 2026-08-26T03:20:49.812Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-25

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Mazzei, ≥3% | 7¢ | −29pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-mike-mazzei-in-the-kalshi-kxprimarymovd-govoknomr26mmaz-mmaz-p3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 57 |
| 2026-08-24 | 54 |
| 2026-08-25 | 57 |
| 2026-08-26 | 28 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-26 · Mike Mazzei, ≥3% −29pp 57→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Mike Mazzei, ≥3% −3pp 57→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Mike Mazzei, ≥3% +3pp 54→57¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Mike Mazzei will win the Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff by 6 percentage points or more. At 54% probability, it reflects a modest lean toward a decisive Mazzei victory but substantial uncertainty about the final margin. The current pricing suggests markets view Mazzei as the frontrunner in a competitive race where the final gap could plausibly land anywhere from a narrow win to a double-digit margin. The runoff outcome depends on turnout dynamics, endorsement patterns among eliminated candidates, and persuasion efforts in the weeks leading to election day. Resolution will occur when Oklahoma certifies the official vote totals from the runoff election, establishing the exact margin of victory.

### Key factors

- Turnout composition: Changes in who votes between the primary and runoff could significantly shift margins, particularly if one candidate's supporters are more motivated to return
- Endorsement consolidation: How eliminated primary candidates and their supporters align in the runoff directly influences whether Mazzei builds or loses ground
- Current primary data: Mazzei's actual performance and vote share in the first round establishes a baseline from which runoff dynamics operate
- Campaign spending and messaging: Differential resource allocation and persuasion efforts during the runoff period can move the needle within a 5-10 point range
- Late-breaking political developments: State or national events, controversies, or candidate positioning changes in the final weeks before the runoff date could impact turnout and vote allocation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primarymovd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=primarymovd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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