# Will Karen Bass finish 2nd in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 5 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primaryplace
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:48.823Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-18

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $578

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haley Stevens | 78¢ | +3pp | $309 | kalshi | /markets/will-haley-stevens-finish-2nd-in-the-2026-michigan-kalshi-kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2-hste |
| Jay Collins | 53¢ | +3pp | $214 | kalshi | /markets/will-jay-collins-finish-2nd-in-the-2026-florida-gu-kalshi-kxprimaryplace-kxgovflnomr-2-jcol |
| Mallory McMorrow | 7¢ | −4pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-mallory-mcmorrow-finish-2nd-in-the-2026-michi-kalshi-kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2-mmcm |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 11¢ | −5pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-abdul-el-sayed-finish-2nd-in-the-2026-michiga-kalshi-kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2-aels |
| James Fishback | 48¢ | −3pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-fishback-finish-2nd-in-the-2026-florida-kalshi-kxprimaryplace-kxgovflnomr-2-jfis |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 39 |
| 2026-06-12 | 48 |
| 2026-06-19 | 32 |
| 2026-06-26 | 53 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · James Fishback −13pp 62→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Jay Collins +9pp 41→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Jay Collins +8pp 28→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Jay Collins +5pp 36→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Abdul El-Sayed −5pp 18→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 23% chance that Karen Bass finishes second in the first round of Los Angeles's 2026 mayoral election. The current probability reflects Bass's position as the incumbent mayor, which typically provides name recognition and organizational advantages, but also makes her vulnerable to challenges from other established candidates. The main uncertainty centers on whether competing candidates can consolidate opposition or if Bass retains enough support to either win outright or place higher. Related markets suggest traders view contests between Bass and candidates like Nithya Raman or Spencer Pratt as plausible primary outcomes. The election's first round will ultimately determine whether Bass maintains her political standing or if accumulated challenges from local issues, housing concerns, or competing candidates reshape the race dynamics. The final results will provide direct resolution of this outcome.

### Key factors

- Bass's current approval ratings as incumbent mayor and whether they've shifted since taking office
- The number and quality of competing candidates entering the race and their ability to split the vote
- Polling data from Los Angeles voters on primary preferences and Bass's relative standing among them
- Voter turnout patterns in Los Angeles primary elections and demographic shifts that could affect Bass's base
- Major local policy issues or crises between now and the election that could shift voter sentiment toward or away from Bass

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primaryplace
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=primaryplace
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.