# What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030

> Oil leads at 49%, runner-up 14% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primeengconsumption
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.039Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2032-12-30

## Headline

- Leader: Oil at 49%
- Runner-up: Coal at 14%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $204

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | 49¢ | ±0 | $115 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-largest-source-of-global-primary-kalshi-kxprimeengconsumption-30-oil |
| Coal | 14¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-largest-source-of-global-primary-kalshi-kxprimeengconsumption-30-coal |
| Gas | 8¢ | −1pp | $89 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-largest-source-of-global-primary-kalshi-kxprimeengconsumption-30-gas |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Oil | Coal | Gas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 54 | — | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 55 | 13 | — |
| 2026-04-12 | 55 | — | 9 |
| 2026-04-13 | 52 | 12 | — |
| 2026-04-16 | 52 | — | 8 |
| 2026-04-20 | 48 | 14 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 47 | — | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 46 | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 47 | — | — |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that oil will remain the largest source of global primary energy consumption through 2030, with a 46% likelihood. The forecast depends on the trajectory of renewable energy adoption rates, competing energy sources like natural gas and coal, and global policy support for energy transitions. Major catalysts include International Energy Agency assessments, corporate energy investment announcements, and actual renewable capacity additions reported in the coming years. Current market pricing suggests significant uncertainty, with the runner-up outcome at 14% indicating no consensus on alternatives. The outcome will be determined by official energy statistics released around 2030-2031 measuring primary energy consumption across all sources.

### Key factors

- Global renewable energy capacity additions are accelerating; IEA data shows whether this pace sustains or decelerates relative to historical trends
- Oil demand growth or contraction in transportation, heating, and industrial sectors, particularly in developing economies
- Natural gas market share trends relative to coal retirement in developed nations and electrification rates in emerging markets
- Investment flows into renewable infrastructure versus fossil fuel projects, measured by annual capital expenditure reports
- Policy implementations affecting energy production costs, including carbon pricing mechanisms and subsidy changes across major economies

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primeengconsumption
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=primeengconsumption
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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