# Primeira Liga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)

> 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Tondela leads at 46%, runner-up 45% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primeira-liga-16th-place-relegation-survivor
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.549Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Tondela at 46%
- Runner-up: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nacional at 45%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Tondela | 46¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-16th-place-relegation-survivor-tonde-polymarket-0x68a6a7dd2a0b30c982969f12fd4e651e6b37ca15f5f3e4b4a6c0e97e7deeb9cc |
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nacional | 45¢ | +14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-16th-place-relegation-survivor-nacio-polymarket-0x8789a4e6bd362370b8f16c902f04a50d8bab793ce07f9e8e049d80281120f170 |
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Estrela da Amadora | 43¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-16th-place-relegation-survivor-estre-polymarket-0x1278584b3963867b71c4d277dbd599c620c7e472f78d4a354ba45b789bf2f2d1 |
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Casa Pia | 34¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-16th-place-relegation-survivor-casa-polymarket-0xab79575e0b3787ee3f32a591ab25930550585bbf845a7fbc133261514e4beed8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Tondela | 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nacional | 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 48 | 48 | 49 |
| 2026-04-30 | — | — | 45 |
| 2026-05-01 | — | 46 | 43 |
| 2026-05-08 | 46 | 30 | — |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 44 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nacional −17pp 46→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nacional +14pp 30→44¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market assessment of which team will finish 16th in Portugal's Primeira Liga, avoiding automatic relegation. At 47%, the leading outcome is slightly favored but carries meaningful uncertainty, with a runner-up contract trading just 1 point lower. The market is pricing in a competitive battle among multiple teams near the relegation zone, where goal differential, head-to-head records, and final-day matchups typically determine outcomes. The primary drivers are each team's current points total, remaining fixture difficulty, and injury status of key players. The season concludes in late May, when final league standings are confirmed and relegation is mathematically determined. Historical volatility in Portuguese league relegation battles suggests probabilities may shift significantly as the season's final weeks approach and key results emerge.

### Key factors

- Multiple contracts trading within 3–4 percentage points indicates genuine competitive clustering in the relegation zone rather than a clear favorite
- Rio Ave (40¢) and Estrela da Amadora (43¢) are the two specific 16th-place survivors being priced, suggesting these are the primary contenders for survival in that position
- Low 24-hour volumes ($0–$50 across top contracts) signal limited recent trading activity and potential for sharper repricing once matches resume or late-season drama unfolds
- Primeira Liga's compressed final schedule in May typically produces rapid standings shifts; teams' remaining opponents and point gaps are critical determinants of survival probability
- Historical Primeira Liga relegation races show multiple teams often finish within 2–3 points, making late-season results (especially goals scored and head-to-head outcomes) the decisive factor over remaining weeks

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primeira-liga-16th-place-relegation-survivor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=primeira-liga-16th-place-relegation-survivor

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