# Primeira Liga

> Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Benfica leads at 51%, runner-up 50% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primeira-liga
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.151Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Benfica at 51%
- Runner-up: Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Benfica at 50%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Benfica | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-europa-leag-polymarket-0x3b37c22b919f6ed4f9b1d84f4a6e0f3c7035933ee9605656d46b95034f955fd4 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Benfica | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-champions-l-polymarket-0x35498c6a815e59a8bcd1b1b1a8fba618ecd71dce72e7c0175d7d37c8bc138258 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Sporting CP | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-europa-leag-polymarket-0x6b9ee8cd58ace6bc11d6092932e966454e671dee20718d6e1fe4451e985844db |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Braga | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-europa-leag-polymarket-0xd867d74360b28fff0b52cc3559c19056422e9ab10eac05106aa31230f6bd4916 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Sporting CP | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-champions-l-polymarket-0x430cc88f7928ec4876162e3cc3baff9e3722f0a9b520dec29231d13776c25f06 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Famalicão | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-conference-polymarket-0x18012c1528c694e540b84354658c2d5d1b23465cdfa90499943a92c37410e173 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Gil Vicente | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-conference-polymarket-0x1380a00e89871f0a11681a1f9c7906532aeeb8c01f5d8ae615a076df0fe02413 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Braga | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-conference-polymarket-0x9a5885c91b9301e81288b0596a342408673f7b80978f17d8df0429884e0e7ac3 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Benfica | 32¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-conference-polymarket-0xab28ae2ae469f85d6778bc94f4d36e2537b250dbba54d53a3798142ba46e9f14 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Famalicão | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-europa-leag-polymarket-0x56413f8dc63935351a19c47b65f3b5f86513ed09fe541f1a6f8fb1e1495a0bc3 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Sporting CP | 10¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/primeira-liga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-conference-polymarket-0x4337a6d3abb44ada457d1d36f1e0252a2dd418d42eb74c3d5ec47643db72e223 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Benfica | Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Benfica | Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 50 | — | 51 |
| 2026-04-26 | 49 | 50 | 50 |
| 2026-05-01 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| 2026-05-02 | 50 | 51 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 43 | 51 | 50 |
| 2026-05-09 | 45 | — | 50 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Benfica +37pp 1→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Famalicão −36pp 47→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Benfica −26pp 27→1¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Sporting CP −19pp 32→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Sporting CP −14pp 46→32¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 51% probability represents the market's assessment that a specific team will qualify for the UEFA Conference League through Portugal's Primeira Liga. The leading contract suggests near-even odds for the outcome, with roughly equal positioning between the top contender and runner-up. Market pricing is driven by each team's current league position, remaining fixtures, and point differentials relative to competitors. The primary catalyst affecting this probability will be the final matchdays of the Primeira Liga season, where teams competing for Conference League qualification typically occupy the fifth-place finish. Contract volumes indicate moderate trading activity, with Estoril Praia and Vitória de Guimarães priced substantially higher than alternatives, suggesting these teams are market favorites. The resolution hinges entirely on final league standings when the regular season concludes.

### Key factors

- Estoril Praia and Vitória de Guimarães command 43-44¢ pricing versus 10¢ or lower for other listed teams, indicating differential probability assessments among contenders
- Current point differential between fifth-place and sixth-place teams determines how many matches remain before Conference League qualification is mathematically settled
- Trading volume concentration in Alverca ($302 24h) and Arouca ($249 24h) contracts suggests active price discovery despite their lower individual probabilities
- The 51% leader-versus-50% runner-up spread indicates minimal separation between two outcomes, reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus
- Final Primeira Liga regular season date will provide definitive settlement, with no appeals or post-season qualification mechanisms affecting the outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/primeira-liga
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=primeira-liga

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.