# Pro Football Draft: 1st Round Most Drafted Position

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 18 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pro-football-draft-1st-round-most-drafted-position
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:31.740Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Mestemaker | 4¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-d-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-dmes |
| Julian Sayin | 4¢ | +1pp | $284 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-j-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-jsay |
| Jeremiah Smith | 6¢ | −2pp | $238 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-j-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-jsmi |
| Dante Moore | 10¢ | ±0 | $172 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-d-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-dmoo |
| Arch Manning | 23¢ | −14pp | $169 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-a-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-aman |
| LaNorris Sellers | 5¢ | +2pp | $82 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-l-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-lsel |
| Big 12 | 84¢ | ±0 | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-big-12-players-selected-in-the-kalshi-kxnbadraftcomp-26accbig12-b12 |
| Cade Cunningham | 77¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cade-cunningham-record-the-most-total-points-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26orldetr1-detccun |
| Donovan Mitchell | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donovan-mitchell-record-the-most-total-points-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26torcler1-cledmit |
| Jalen Duren | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-duren-record-the-most-total-points-in-t-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26orldetr1-detjdur |
| CJ Carr | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-c-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-ccar |
| RJ Barrett | 25¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rj-barrett-record-the-most-total-points-in-th-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26torcler1-torrbar |
| Arizona | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2027-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-ari |
| Paolo Banchero | 8¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paolo-banchero-record-the-most-total-points-i-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26orldetr1-orlpban |
| New York J | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-j-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-nyj |
| Miami | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2027-p-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-mia |
| Scottie Barnes | 32¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-barnes-record-the-most-total-points-i-kalshi-kxnbaseriesptsleader-26torcler1-torsbar |
| Cleveland | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-cle |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 83 |
| 2026-04-19 | 47 |
| 2026-04-26 | 20 |
| 2026-05-03 | 16 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Donovan Mitchell −38pp 55→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Donovan Mitchell +36pp 14→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Cade Cunningham +34pp 41→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Cade Cunningham −31pp 72→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Donovan Mitchell −22pp 50→28¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pro-football-draft-1st-round-most-drafted-position
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pro-football-draft-1st-round-most-drafted-position

## License

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