# 2026 Pro Football Draft: 2nd Overall Pick

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 20 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pro-football-draft-2nd-overall-pick
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:58.379Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $103K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vrabel | 19¢ | −1pp | $38K | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-football-coaches-will-be-out-before-sep-kalshi-kxcoachoutnfl-26sep01-mvra |
| OKC wins 4-0 | 41¢ | ±0 | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-win-4-0-in-the-los-angeles-l-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26lalokcr2-okc40 |
| OKC wins 4-2 | 16¢ | +2pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-win-4-2-in-the-los-angeles-l-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26lalokcr2-okc42 |
| SAS wins 4-2 | 16¢ | ±0 | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-win-4-2-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-a-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-sas42 |
| LAL wins 4-3 | 3¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-l-win-4-3-in-the-los-angeles-l-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26lalokcr2-lal43 |
| SAS wins 4-0 | 34¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-win-4-0-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-a-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-sas40 |
| MIN wins 4-2 | 4¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-4-2-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-ant-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-min42 |
| OKC wins 4-1 | 35¢ | +12pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-win-4-1-in-the-los-angeles-l-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26lalokcr2-okc41 |
| MIN wins 4-3 | 5¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-4-3-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-ant-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-min43 |
| SAS wins 4-1 | 33¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-win-4-1-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-a-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-sas41 |
| At least 1 series sweep | 51¢ | −7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-at-least-1-series-sweep-in-the-2nd-r-kalshi-kxnbasweep-26r2-1 |
| OKC wins 4-3 | 5¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-win-4-3-in-the-los-angeles-l-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26lalokcr2-okc43 |
| At least 2 series sweeps | 20¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-at-least-2-series-sweeps-in-the-2nd-kalshi-kxnbasweep-26r2-2 |
| SAS wins 4-3 | 6¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-win-4-3-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-a-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-sas43 |
| Over 4.5 total games | 63¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-45-total-games-in-the-minnesota-kalshi-kxnbaseriesgames-26minsasr2-5 |
| Atlanta | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-atl |
| Arizona | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2027-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-ari |
| Miami | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2027-p-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-mia |
| New York J | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-j-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-nyj |
| Cleveland | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-cle |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 2 |
| 2026-04-19 | 17 |
| 2026-04-26 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 23 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · At least 1 series sweep +13pp 32→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · OKC wins 4-1 +12pp 21→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · At least 1 series sweep −11pp 44→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · At least 1 series sweep +7pp 45→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · At least 1 series sweep −7pp 52→45¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pro-football-draft-2nd-overall-pick
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pro-football-draft-2nd-overall-pick

## License

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