# 2026 Pro Football Draft: 3rd Overall Pick

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pro-football-draft-3rd-overall-pick
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:06.465Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $46K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vrabel | 19¢ | −1pp | $39K | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-football-coaches-will-be-out-before-sep-kalshi-kxcoachoutnfl-26sep01-mvra |
| Utah | 11¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lotter-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-uta |
| Drew Mestemaker | 4¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-d-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-dmes |
| Las Vegas | 18¢ | +1pp | $577 | kalshi | /markets/will-las-vegas-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-lv |
| New York J | 11¢ | +1pp | $289 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-j-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-nyj |
| Julian Sayin | 4¢ | +1pp | $242 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-j-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-jsay |
| Jeremiah Smith | 6¢ | −2pp | $218 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-j-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-jsmi |
| Chicago | 5¢ | ±0 | $182 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-chi |
| Washington | 13¢ | ±0 | $135 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-was |
| Brooklyn | 13¢ | +1pp | $132 | kalshi | /markets/will-brooklyn-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lo-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-bkn |
| Indiana | 13¢ | ±0 | $121 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-ind |
| Yes | 57¢ | ±0 | $116 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-winning-team-of-the-2026-pro-football-cha-kalshi-kxsuperbowlwhitehouse-26dec31 |
| Atlanta | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-atl |
| Jayden Quaintance | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-10-draft-picks-in-2026-jayden-q-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-10-jqua |
| Miami | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-play-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-mia |
| Arizona | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2027-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-ari |
| New York J | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-j-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-nyj |
| Miami | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2027-p-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-mia |
| Cleveland | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-cle |
| Caleb Wilson | 30¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-3-draft-picks-in-2026-caleb-wil-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-3-cwil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 16 |
| 2026-04-19 | 19 |
| 2026-04-26 | 13 |
| 2026-05-03 | 23 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Mike Vrabel −6pp 31→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Mike Vrabel +5pp 22→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Mike Vrabel −5pp 27→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Jeremiah Smith +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Mike Vrabel +3pp 28→31¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pro-football-draft-3rd-overall-pick
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pro-football-draft-3rd-overall-pick

## License

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