# Pro Football: NFC North Champion

> NFC North Champion: Detroit Lions leads at 36%, runner-up 26% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pro-football-nfc-north-champion
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:07.700Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-04

## Headline

- Leader: NFC North Champion: Detroit Lions at 36%
- Runner-up: NFC North Champion: Chicago Bears at 26%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $134

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC North Champion: Detroit Lions | 36¢ | −1pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-nfc-north-champion-detroit-lions-polymarket-0x4f9a05553110a4b9836ebbd0302bee725394f8fb14be8574b099280ffbcbe0cb |
| NFC North Champion: Chicago Bears | 26¢ | −5pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-nfc-north-champion-chicago-bears-polymarket-0x27f0a7e03f8e4afc417f74ed532c6216c431ecec27b2a136b5b894007dd46dc6 |
| NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers | 26¢ | −8pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-nfc-north-champion-green-bay-packers-polymarket-0xa8deedb9c5becf96d94fbcfc2e1697e8fdc5cf8785b0a145e916483a79b98b45 |
| NFC North Champion: Minnesota Vikings | 25¢ | ±0 | $44 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-nfc-north-champion-minnesota-vikings-polymarket-0xd90ebec0082a990159940d8927f52de8fb5acd269f31a78f1daed5e0b0b707cf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | NFC North Champion: Detroit Lions | NFC North Champion: Chicago Bears | NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 33 | 18 | 33 |
| 2026-05-25 | 35 | 18 | 26 |
| 2026-06-01 | 37 | 24 | 31 |
| 2026-06-08 | 37 | 27 | 29 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers +8pp 31→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers −8pp 37→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · NFC North Champion: Chicago Bears +5pp 19→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · NFC North Champion: Chicago Bears +5pp 25→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · NFC North Champion: Chicago Bears −5pp 32→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 33% probability indicates that betting markets estimate roughly one-in-three odds that the team currently leading contract prices will win the NFC North division championship. The leading contract is trading higher than its nearest competitor (30%), reflecting market perception of relative strength among the four division teams. Movement in this probability will primarily depend on team performance during the regular season, injury developments, and playoff qualification dynamics. The division championship will be determined by final standings at the end of the 2026 NFL regular season, with the winner confirmed in early 2027 when playoff seeding is finalized.

### Key factors

- The top-priced contract (Detroit at 33%) trades at a significant premium to teams priced at 8-9 cents, suggesting differentiation in perceived championship likelihood rather than evenly-matched competition.
- Trading volume concentrated in Detroit and Chicago contracts ($5,609 and $5,435 in 24h volume respectively) indicates these two teams command substantially more market attention than Minnesota or Washington.
- The contract distribution (33%, 30%, 9%, 8%, 3%) reflects division hierarchy, with the bottom three teams combined at 20%, suggesting the market assigns most probability mass to two primary contenders.
- Contract pricing at 3-9 cents rather than higher levels suggests meaningful uncertainty remains—no single outcome is heavily favored despite the leader's relative advantage.
- Regular season performance from September 2026 forward will be the primary driver of probability shifts, with win-loss records determining playoff positioning and division champion qualification.

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pro-football-nfc-north-champion

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