# Pro Football

> Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Cincinnati Bengals leads at 89%, runner-up 5% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pro-football
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:50:12.840Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-02-13

## Headline

- Leader: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Cincinnati Bengals at 89%
- Runner-up: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New England Patriots at 5%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $184

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Cincinnati Bengals | 89¢ | +33pp | $49 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x44942063085d8e0147c72c3c36085398b860053288d3831d5c0364ce8c86b12d |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New England Patriots | 5¢ | −21pp | $55 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0xe97020c5df4ab15fada2a8c2062fee4b615d7d68e3678695b5492754eb10aa73 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Philadelphia Eagles | 4¢ | −36pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x0a3d8852d5fc7f42a0ef2db5ae8df79e32a585d4948065463b26ea277c19a558 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Baltimore Ravens | 3¢ | −27pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x3598fab6455658336fe1f0694aa2247121013bbd085e86d2a3d69414a2f195ea |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Buffalo Bills | 3¢ | −33pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x78566c05c7ddc13483b318a72e4306ba81a87120397175b5975f5cb28615aef3 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Chicago Bears | 3¢ | −35pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x378de2dd14d3f0121d5debe386b63c80452c835da93c06cbfcf3b77c656d2ddc |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Indianapolis Colts | 3¢ | −36pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x91809003642bc6da5ddb67483d1dd6b3a9225b9ff64da10e68af7be9b4c06161 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Las Vegas Raiders | 3¢ | −22pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x11a04ddffd612de9e35c231d08a99b435bbda442a68ee0844f9bb230efa370a4 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Minnesota Vikings | 3¢ | −29pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x935c49f94e8f63c90e392127af949f8e050ed5a84c06f926548c26d8ba54d851 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Seattle Seahawks | 3¢ | −27pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x4b7673dfcc30f65ffc9c1d29ff51d9a6cf0adb5ae571354c06fe9052af928316 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Washington Commanders | 3¢ | −33pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x456bf0a23855d16c310d0b0d4dfaf7e6de1a96ce1d0695dc2df04b9bf584c925 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Atlanta Falcons | 3¢ | −20pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x5c152e4ce956f9f375a7fcade531b5e56cd8c918a114c519a015283d7450ce10 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Carolina Panthers | 3¢ | −32pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x133dc2987cf7f9ab52ae1c01072711ea11b7c8fcff59033b6b7aa49a27f253a5 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Denver Broncos | 3¢ | −19pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x45b47c51fb9f57b94fef763fa8b2f229b9e2338993fcb459342e7ddefcf7e670 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Green Bay Packers | 3¢ | −26pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x8574cf8bd89bbae9fe5920591a644c3c69457b348e03381dc1fe07fe17e29ef3 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Houston Texans | 3¢ | −28pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x75778e152f69bdbb5c7b07d8d8bb9a6bf315f20c383c400ad41573df670380e5 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New Orleans Saints | 3¢ | −29pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x55213ccc171dc62341d25a85be6772355ba3457fea2646cde6df39254da52db1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Cincinnati Bengals | Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New England Patriots | Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 48 | 46 | 47 |
| 2026-05-01 | 48 | 48 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 56 | 39 | 44 |
| 2026-05-03 | 89 | 18 | 8 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Philadelphia Eagles −36pp 44→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Indianapolis Colts −36pp 43→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Chicago Bears −35pp 41→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Cincinnati Bengals +33pp 56→89¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Buffalo Bills −33pp 40→7¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Houston will win the 2027 NFL championship, based on 20 simultaneous contracts where traders allocate probabilities across all 32 teams. At 90%, this reflects extremely high confidence in Houston relative to other franchises; by comparison, San Francisco trades at 5% and Cincinnati at 3%. The current level reflects Houston's recent roster composition, coaching stability, and perceived competitive window. Primary upward pressure would come from draft results, free-agent acquisitions, or strong preseason performance; downward pressure could result from injury to key players, coaching changes, or playoff disappointment in 2026. The most immediate resolution catalyst is the 2026 NFL season (September 2026 through early 2027), which will demonstrate Houston's actual competitive standing and generate new information about roster health, coaching decisions, and divisional dynamics that investors currently price into these contracts.

### Key factors

- Houston's contract price of 3 cents on Kalshi implies roughly 3% individual win probability, creating a 30x gap between the market leader and the lowest-priced team shown
- The aggregate volume across contracts ($128k+ in 24h trading) indicates material but not exceptional liquidity relative to major championship markets
- Mike Vrabel's coaching future (19 cents on Kalshi) represents near-term uncertainty that could significantly alter Houston's championship trajectory before the 2027 season
- San Francisco and Detroit, traditional contenders, trade at 5 cents—only marginally below Houston despite different roster situations and recent playoff history
- The 2026 NFL regular season and playoffs (September 2026–January 2027) will be the primary mechanism for repricing all 32 team probabilities as actual team performance data emerges

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pro-football
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pro-football

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.