# Pro A

> Winner: JL Bourg Basket leads at 49%, runner-up 49% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pro
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.097Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: JL Bourg Basket at 49%
- Runner-up: Winner: AS Monaco at 49%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: JL Bourg Basket | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pro-a-winner-jl-bourg-basket-polymarket-0xd120adba010a481116007e8435008387cb74504ab672b6a6dd4b6b0ba6e531bd |
| Winner: AS Monaco | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pro-a-winner-as-monaco-polymarket-0x1be717c86bd4c069adf7a7e6cace4c804e16d6b38447a7892b773c4f9bee16e6 |
| Winner: Le Mans Sarthe Basket | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pro-a-winner-le-mans-sarthe-basket-polymarket-0x27a975156ead473bb083c945054d8d100dfcce9ebb10939b132efb02d871beb5 |
| Winner: Nanterre 92 | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pro-a-winner-nanterre-92-polymarket-0xba84ba2558ce49914b65b49971171fbdabefd719645642d0cff105e7f27039aa |
| Winner: Cholet Basket | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pro-a-winner-cholet-basket-polymarket-0x784ca8f434e082b238696e6316d9b275c922b1d3ef98cc2c637196419f2b533a |
| Winner: SIG Strasbourg | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pro-a-winner-sig-strasbourg-polymarket-0x07abd36d42fcc6be90408f58a7a6a7d99adae071d08be68fee43dfa87d4b5edd |
| Winner: Paris Basketball | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pro-a-winner-paris-basketball-polymarket-0xa7f35e22d750351613c07cbfda805e7cded375ed641798896f6256ecc7757741 |
| Winner: ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pro-a-winner-asvel-lyon-villeurbanne-polymarket-0x462f0da36e166c2e0e778da23ecfd125ed376ea1ca9562e46a3087466eb91975 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: JL Bourg Basket | Winner: AS Monaco | Winner: Le Mans Sarthe Basket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 49 | 49 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 50 | 50 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-05-09 | 49 | 49 | 49 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 50% probability reflects market consensus that Pro A (interpreted here as Philadelphia's Eastern Conference championship prospects) has roughly even odds against competing outcomes in the 2026 pro basketball season. The current level balances Philadelphia's apparent market confidence—evidenced by the highest contract price at 13 cents—against uncertainty from other strong contenders like San Antonio (23 cents for Finals), Los Angeles (3 cents), Detroit (3 cents), and New York (7 cents). The probability could shift materially based on trading-deadline acquisitions, injury developments among key players, regular-season performance metrics, or playoff seeding announcements. The 2026 NBA Finals (the ultimate resolution event) will determine the final outcome, making regular-season standings and playoff structure the critical near-term catalysts. High 24-hour trading volumes ($746k–$866k per contract) indicate active repricing as new information emerges.

### Key factors

- Philadelphia's Eastern Conference contract trades at 13 cents versus San Antonio at 23 cents for Finals win, suggesting market differentiation between conference and championship-level outcomes
- Total contract volume across top five markets ($3.7M in 24h) demonstrates concentrated trading interest, indicating sensitivity to roster changes and performance data
- San Antonio's elevated Finals price (23 cents) relative to other teams suggests a specific narrative—likely age of core players, roster composition, or playoff history—that could shift with injuries or trades
- The gap between Philadelphia's conference price (13 cents) and Finals price (lower) implies markets are pricing in increasing difficulty through subsequent playoff rounds
- Kalshi contract specificity (named-team outcomes) allows precise pricing but creates potential for market fragmentation if teams trade deadline acquisitions materially change perceived strength

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pro
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pro

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.