# Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch — $300M

> $200M leads at 28%, runner-up 25% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.322Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $200M at 28%
- Runner-up: $500M at 25%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200M | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0xb597a6a7f4720d228a1ce9976ba46d3281e041b3d062b5399da500258cbd2da9 |
| $500M | 25¢ | ±0 | $20 | polymarket | /markets/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0xf5870f0480b48e0c89a3245cbce3d7f1bddeb95ffc13ed5b7c5c6f3e9eaf0f1f |
| $300M | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0x1ff60bd285eb7f33fa1a5acef5e5a6a876c8635b134518f28e61f3acef546e9c |
| $50M | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0x4b5d821d5b477953ac6ace9ec9155cf1a65e52780cd4d4b443ccce216cd79b1c |
| $800M | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-800m-polymarket-0xa9e02ddf507d5db703833c985899989a0debe08caa4bd80fccf2b774b6c960d4 |
| $100M | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xedef61bebfc58d0d6e890f6fa8c277f7da8a0a0df71180ae49efd90ee037925f |
| $400M | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-400m-polymarket-0xf4514becb361afd680466e3606f37987fd5ac935305fe2195137c6b9180c204c |
| $1B | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0x6a85bc92e7a8fa5bc58dce15a419c06aa075b924f186207d5d8726642a8b9a46 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $200M | $500M | $300M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 9 | 37 | 14 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 41 | 12 |
| 2026-04-26 | 10 | 42 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 46 | 45 | 18 |
| 2026-05-08 | 28 | 26 | 18 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $500M −17pp 43→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $100M −15pp 25→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · $200M −10pp 37→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $200M −8pp 45→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $800M −5pp 15→10¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 45% probability that a project will reach a $300 million fully diluted valuation within one day of launching. The leading market position reflects meaningful disagreement among traders: the runner-up sits at 44%, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus. Most markets show lower confidence in higher valuation thresholds ($500M and $800M trade at 44¢ and 17¢ respectively), while lower thresholds command near-certainty pricing ($50M at 94¢). The primary factors shaping this probability are the project's pre-launch momentum, token allocation structure, and comparable launch performances in the current market cycle. Resolution depends entirely on the official launch date and real-time FDV calculations immediately following. Significant token unlocks, investor demand patterns, or regulatory announcements closer to launch could shift this estimate materially in either direction.

### Key factors

- Current market split between 45% and 44% top contracts indicates low conviction—neither outcome is heavily favored, suggesting traders view this as genuinely uncertain rather than predictable
- Lower valuation thresholds ($50M–$100M) price at 94¢–89¢, while higher ones ($500M–$1B) price at 44¢–17¢, showing a declining-confidence curve consistent with typical launch dynamics
- 24-hour trading volume concentrated in $500M–$800M contracts ($5.5K–$6K) rather than the $300M threshold, suggesting active disagreement on mid-range scenarios but less interest in the exact $300M level
- Post-launch FDV determination depends on token supply and price at market open—any surprises in allocation, lock-up schedules, or initial trading behavior will directly move this probability
- Historical comparable launches and current token market conditions will establish baseline expectations; absence of major pre-launch catalysts suggests market is pricing base-case scenario with roughly even odds

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.