# Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral election

> Brett Smiley leads at 72%, runner-up 25% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/providencemayor
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.660Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Brett Smiley at 72%
- Runner-up: David Morales at 25%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Smiley | 72¢ | +6pp | $306 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-providence-ri-mayoral-electi-kalshi-kxprovidencemayor-26-bsmi |
| David Morales | 25¢ | +4pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-providence-ri-mayoral-electi-kalshi-kxprovidencemayor-26-dmor |
| Allen Waters | 3¢ | −2pp | $497 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-providence-ri-mayoral-electi-kalshi-kxprovidencemayor-26-awat |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Brett Smiley | David Morales | Allen Waters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 67 | 8 | 8 |
| 2026-05-28 | 73 | 12 | 6 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Brett Smiley +6pp 67→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · David Morales +4pp 8→12¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/providencemayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=providencemayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.