# Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 67% across 1 contract — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/province-schedule-referendum-to-leave-canada
Updated: 2026-05-28T22:20:11.681Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 67% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $483

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | 67¢ | +1pp | $483 | polymarket | /markets/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-can-polymarket-0x006e3bc30b325c9cd4e4a35e33738e7f49634dc353f8495303d511b875d8ad5b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 59 |
| 2026-05-14 | 50 |
| 2026-05-21 | 68 |
| 2026-05-28 | 69 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? −11pp 68→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? +8pp 60→68¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? +7pp 57→64¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? −3pp 57→54¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? +3pp 54→57¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that a Canadian province will formally schedule a referendum on independence before the end of 2026. The 48% level suggests near-parity between scenarios where provincial separation momentum builds significantly versus those where national unity prevails or independence movements remain dormant. The main drivers are Quebec's political trajectory—where sovereigntist parties periodically dominate provincial politics—and economic conditions that might fuel separatist sentiment in resource-rich provinces. Federal-provincial tensions, particularly around fiscal arrangements or constitutional issues, could shift dynamics either direction. The most significant catalyst would be a provincial election victory by an explicitly pro-independence party with a clear referendum mandate, most likely in Quebec, though such outcomes remain uncertain given shifting voter preferences and the high political bar for scheduling referendums.

### Key factors

- Quebec's current government composition and sovereigntist party polling; a Bloc Québécois or Parti Québécois-led government makes a referendum significantly more likely
- Electoral timelines in Quebec and other provinces—provincial elections scheduled before end of 2026 create the procedural opportunity for pro-independence parties to gain power
- Recent federal-provincial disputes over healthcare funding, immigration, or equalization payments that could strengthen separatist messaging
- Historical volatility in independence sentiment; polling on Quebec sovereignty regularly fluctuates 10-20 percentage points based on economic conditions and political scandals
- The legal and procedural requirements—a province must hold an election or secure legislative support, not merely express interest; scheduling requires formal legislative action

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/province-schedule-referendum-to-leave-canada
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=province-schedule-referendum-to-leave-canada

## License

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