# Will Paul Coll win the 2025-26 Men's PSA World Squash Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 12 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/psasquash
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.531Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Elias | 14¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-diego-elias-win-the-2025-26-mens-psa-world-sq-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26m-deli |
| Caroline Fouts | 96¢ | — | $830 | kalshi | /markets/will-caroline-fouts-win-the-2025-26-womens-psa-wor-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26w-cfou |
| Mostafa Asal | 60¢ | ±0 | $368 | kalshi | /markets/will-mostafa-asal-win-the-2025-26-mens-psa-world-s-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26m-masa |
| Hania El Hammamy | 48¢ | +1pp | $205 | kalshi | /markets/will-hania-el-hammamy-win-the-2025-26-womens-psa-w-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26w-helh |
| Amina Orfi | 6¢ | +1pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/will-amina-orfi-win-the-2025-26-womens-psa-world-s-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26w-aorf |
| Nour ElSherbini | 27¢ | +3pp | $41 | kalshi | /markets/will-nour-elsherbini-win-the-2025-26-womens-psa-wo-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26w-nels |
| Paul Coll | 4¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-coll-win-the-2025-26-mens-psa-world-squa-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26m-pcol |
| Youssef Ibrahim | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-youssef-ibrahim-win-the-2025-26-mens-psa-worl-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26m-yibr |
| Marina Stefanoni | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marina-stefanoni-win-the-2025-26-womens-psa-w-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26w-mstef |
| Tinne Gilis | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tinne-gilis-win-the-2025-26-womens-psa-world-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26w-tgil |
| Sivasangari Subramaniam | 5¢ | −91pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sivasangari-subramaniam-win-the-2025-26-women-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26w-ssub |
| Olivia Weaver | 95¢ | +48pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-olivia-weaver-win-the-2025-26-womens-psa-worl-kalshi-kxpsasquash-26w-owea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | 26 |
| 2026-04-25 | 34 |
| 2026-05-02 | 22 |
| 2026-05-08 | 26 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Sivasangari Subramaniam −91pp 96→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Hania El Hammamy +23pp 26→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Hania El Hammamy −14pp 40→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Nour ElSherbini −8pp 33→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Mostafa Asal −3pp 58→55¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 32% probability indicates that Paul Coll is estimated to have roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the 2025-26 Men's PSA World Squash Championship. The current assessment reflects Coll's ranking and recent performance relative to other top competitors in professional squash. Movement in this probability would depend on Coll's results in major tournaments leading up to the championship final, which typically occurs in late 2026, and how competitors' form evolves throughout the season. Key drivers include Coll's consistency in ranking events, injuries or form changes among other top players, and head-to-head matchup results in the months preceding the championship. The championship resolution date remains the primary catalyst that will determine the outcome.

### Key factors

- Paul Coll's current PSA ranking and recent tournament performance compared to other seeded contenders
- Win-loss record against the top 5-10 ranked players in squash during the 2025-26 season
- Tournament results from major PSA events (including Masters and Platinum Series events) from January through the championship date
- Health status and participation consistency—absences or injuries to Coll or competing top players would materially affect probability
- Recent head-to-head match records between Coll and historically favored championship contenders

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/psasquash
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=psasquash

## License

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