# Will Paramount Skydance CORP report above 70 million paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 2026

> Closed. Final outcome: above 76 million. Last odds frozen 3 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/psky
Updated: 2026-05-05T18:50:36.705Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-08-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 70 million at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 72 million at 94%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $128
- Resolved: above 76 million

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 70 million | 94¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paramount-skydance-corp-report-above-70-milli-kalshi-kxpsky-26julparsubs-70000000.0 |
| Above 72 million | 94¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paramount-skydance-corp-report-above-72-milli-kalshi-kxpsky-26julparsubs-72000000.0 |
| above 76 million | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paramount-skydance-corp-report-above-76-milli-kalshi-kxpsky-26julparsubs-76000000.0 |
| Above 74 million | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paramount-skydance-corp-report-above-74-milli-kalshi-kxpsky-26julparsubs-74000000.0 |
| above 78 million | 85¢ | +5pp | $86 | kalshi | /markets/will-paramount-skydance-corp-report-above-78-milli-kalshi-kxpsky-26julparsubs-78000000.0 |
| Above 80 million | 13¢ | −6pp | $42 | kalshi | /markets/will-paramount-skydance-corp-report-above-80-milli-kalshi-kxpsky-26julparsubs-80000000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 70 million | Above 72 million | above 76 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 94 | 93 | 89 |
| 2026-04-14 | 95 | 94 | — |
| 2026-04-17 | — | — | 90 |
| 2026-04-25 | 95 | — | — |
| 2026-04-27 | — | — | 90 |
| 2026-04-30 | 98 | 98 | 97 |
| 2026-05-01 | 98 | 95 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 98 | — | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 98 | — | 98 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Above 80 million −6pp 24→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · above 78 million +5pp 75→80¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 97% probability that Paramount Skydance will report above 76 million Paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 2026. The high confidence is driven by Paramount's recent subscriber growth trajectory and the relatively modest threshold set by this contract tier. The main factors that could pressure this prediction downward include slower-than-expected subscriber acquisition, higher churn rates, or strategic changes to subscription bundling. The Q1 2026 earnings release and accompanying subscriber metrics report—typically scheduled for late April or early May 2026—will definitively resolve this contract. Market depth is visible across multiple subscriber tiers (76M, 78M, 80M), with prices declining sharply at higher thresholds, suggesting traders view the 76M level as highly achievable but growth beyond 80 million as uncertain.

### Key factors

- Paramount+ reported 70 million global subscribers in Q4 2025; achieving 76+ million by Q1 2026 requires only 6+ million net additions over three months
- The 97% price on the 76M contract versus 18% on the 80M contract indicates market consensus that modest growth is highly probable but substantial acceleration is not
- Paramount's bundling with other services (including Paramount Essential and Premium tiers) and international expansion are primary drivers of subscriber additions
- The official Q1 2026 earnings release, expected in late April/May 2026, will provide audited subscriber counts that directly settle this market
- Historical churn patterns, marketing spend decisions, and competitive pressure from Netflix, Disney+, and other platforms could significantly affect quarterly subscriber net change

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/psky
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=psky

## License

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