# Will Bill Pulte formally hold the role of Acting Director of National Intelligence before June 20, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pultedni
Updated: 2026-06-20T13:20:20.457Z
Category: legislation
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Leader: Before July 7, 2026 at 97%
- Runner-up: Before July 1, 2026 at 97%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before July 7, 2026 | 97¢ | +6pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-pulte-formally-hold-the-role-of-acting-d-kalshi-kxpultedni-26jul01-07 |
| Before July 1, 2026 | 97¢ | +5pp | $222 | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-pulte-formally-hold-the-role-of-acting-d-kalshi-kxpultedni-26jul01 |
| Before June 20, 2026 | 96¢ | +14pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-pulte-formally-hold-the-role-of-acting-d-kalshi-kxpultedni-26jul01-0620 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before July 7, 2026 | Before July 1, 2026 | Before June 20, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | — | 42 | — |
| 2026-06-04 | 55 | 16 | — |
| 2026-06-09 | 19 | 10 | 15 |
| 2026-06-12 | 33 | 36 | 31 |
| 2026-06-19 | 98 | 97 | 94 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Before June 20, 2026 +14pp 80→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Before July 7, 2026 +6pp 92→98¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Before July 1, 2026 +5pp 92→97¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Bill Pulte will be appointed to formally serve as Acting Director of National Intelligence before July 7, 2026—roughly 10 days from now. The 71% price indicates traders assess this as more likely than not, though with meaningful uncertainty. The primary driver is whether the current or incoming administration decides to make this appointment in the coming days. Key factors traders are weighing include Pulte's existing government role or prior experience in intelligence matters, any recent public statements or nominations from administration officials, and institutional precedent for appointing individuals to this role. The resolution depends entirely on whether an official appointment occurs before the deadline. Contracts at earlier dates (June 20 and July 1) trade lower, suggesting traders expect the decision point to be immediate but not necessarily immediate.

### Key factors

- Official appointment would require formal announcement from the President or relevant administration officials within 10 days
- Pulte's prior roles or qualifications in national security or intelligence would likely be cited in any appointment
- No prior public indication as of June 10 has been widely reported, making this either imminent or unlikely
- Market pricing suggests 71% confidence for July 7 deadline but only 47% for July 1 and 41% for June 20, indicating uncertainty about timing
- Acting directorships typically bypass Senate confirmation, meaning institutional barriers are lower than permanent appointments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pultedni
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pultedni

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.