# Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 1 contract — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-december-31
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:08.677Z
Category: politics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 9¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-20-polymarket-0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 10 |
| 2026-06-01 | 9 |
| 2026-06-06 | 10 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Vladimir Putin will no longer serve as President of Russia by year-end 2026—roughly seven months away. At 12%, the market reflects extremely low expectations for regime change, suggesting traders view Putin's political position as highly stable over this timeframe. The baseline is shaped by Russia's institutional continuity and Putin's consolidated control, though the probability could shift significantly based on developments in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, any sudden health concerns, or unexpected domestic political fractures. The most concrete resolution point is whether major geopolitical or internal developments occur that destabilize Putin's authority before the year ends. Currently, prediction markets price such scenarios as tail risks rather than base-case outcomes.

### Key factors

- Russia's current military engagement in Ukraine continues without indication of regime collapse, suggesting institutional stability remains high through 2026
- Comparison markets show similar low probabilities for other major leader exits (Zelenskyy 16%, Erdoğan 11%), indicating general market skepticism about rapid leadership transitions
- A 12-cent price implies traders assign meaningful probability to unexpected events, but within a narrow cone that strongly favors continuity
- No scheduled elections, mandatory transitions, or known succession mechanisms in Russia's political system create natural near-term opportunities for leadership change
- Trading volume ($24k+ in 24 hours) shows modest but consistent interest, suggesting the contract is priced by a functioning market rather than illiquid speculation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-december-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=putin-out-as-president-of-russia-december-31
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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