# Putin out as President of Russia by June 30

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: ukraine
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $171K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | 3¢ | ±0 | $171K | polymarket | /markets/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-june-30-polymarket-0x1a1346d763389455dac46a51e20c4cc25aecef5323f1701a440cc11d4c3f129e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-04 | 2 |
| 2026-06-14 | 2 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects a 3% probability that Putin ceases to be President of Russia by June 30, 2026—approximately 17 days from today. The low probability reflects the institutional stability of Russia's political system and absence of imminent succession signals. The metric would shift primarily on evidence of health crisis, coup activity, constitutional change, or explicit statements from power centers indicating transition. Since the resolution date is 17 days away, any major political event—unexpected government announcements, military developments, or health disclosures—represents the main remaining catalyst for significant probability movement. The market essentially prices this as an extremely low-probability tail event within a compressed timeframe.

### Key factors

- Putin has held the presidency since 2000 with no announced succession plans or constitutional changes currently in motion
- Recent constitutional amendments (2020) extended potential presidential tenure through 2036, suggesting institutional intent for continuity
- No credible reporting indicates imminent health crises, military coup attempts, or factional power struggles at the highest levels of Russian government
- The 17-day resolution window leaves minimal time for political upheaval to develop and crystallize into actual presidential transition
- Market is priced at historical lows for such events, indicating consensus view that near-term removal is extremely unlikely absent unprecedented developments

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=putin-out-as-president-of-russia-june-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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