# Will Putin visit China by May 31

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/putin-visit-china-may-31
Updated: 2026-05-21T07:20:49.783Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $33K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Putin visit China by May 31? | 97¢ | ±0 | $33K | polymarket | /markets/will-putin-visit-china-by-may-31-polymarket-0x1a79328ec8dacec06ca77e364bb9da538e529744a601a94fbb7cf78825dbe9e6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 79 |
| 2026-05-14 | 92 |
| 2026-05-19 | 100 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/putin-visit-china-may-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=putin-visit-china-may-31
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.