# Qatar vs. Switzerland

> Switzerland leads at 77%, runner-up 16% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/qatar-vs-switzerland
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.833Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-13

## Headline

- Leader: Switzerland at 77%
- Runner-up: Draw (Qatar vs. Switzerland) at 16%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $696

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 77¢ | +1pp | $696 | polymarket | /markets/qatar-vs-switzerland-switzerland-polymarket-0x6b864f35765706986a861d22fcc207872062186ddcb5fbc20275e991b20ff6ab |
| Draw (Qatar vs. Switzerland) | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qatar-vs-switzerland-draw-qatar-vs-switzerland-polymarket-0x639c60e4a74ea30a30b637625813d3fabed195d88072a488f8b7ac6441b930ae |
| Qatar | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qatar-vs-switzerland-qatar-polymarket-0x415cb64cfa04f2cde4ec39c5a81050cc9fb539b9b6972e72cce16b46e0e33a5b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Switzerland | Draw (Qatar vs. Switzerland) | Qatar |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 74 | 17 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 74 | 16 | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 74 | 17 | 10 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 17 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 75 | — | 10 |
| 2026-05-07 | 76 | 17 | 10 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | — | 10 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Switzerland will defeat Qatar in an upcoming match. The 75% price for Switzerland indicates strong confidence in their victory, while Qatar's 10-17¢ pricing suggests markets view them as significant underdogs. The gap likely reflects differences in recent form, head-to-head history, or current squad strength. The resolution will depend on match performance on the scheduled date, with injury updates, lineup changes, or tactical adjustments potentially shifting expectations before kickoff. Weather conditions and home/away advantage may also influence outcomes.

### Key factors

- Switzerland has been priced at 75¢ across multiple contracts while Qatar trades at 10-17¢, indicating a sustained market view of Switzerland as heavy favorites
- Polymarket and Kalshi contracts show consistent directionality, with Switzerland's price stable around 74-75¢ across platforms
- Qatar's pricing in direct head-to-head matchups (10¢ on Polymarket) versus alternative pairings (17¢ in Canada vs. Qatar contract) suggests context-dependent risk assessment
- Volume concentration around Switzerland's contract ($111 24h volume on Kalshi) indicates active trading conviction rather than thin-market anomalies
- The 58-point gap between Switzerland (75%) and the runner-up (17%) suggests market participants see this as a more decisive outcome than a competitive fixture

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/qatar-vs-switzerland
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=qatar-vs-switzerland

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.