# Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-20T13:20:30.429Z
Category: general · Topic: china
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 78%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 57%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 78¢ | −9pp | $75 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x88f176a33bb0a4491379ec260d5756d638a8b9148e415ac1b1377c9c9de85df8 |
| Both Teams to Score | 57¢ | −5pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x36e851e0c6746b91a4de292fce4699e5d7a50907cdd7f07e331b210ddfc78bdf |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | −16pp | $12K | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x3b75acc6b3fce5ad8c55ed29f4bc6174eadf5b8983d3d481db7e3b7ca459c77b |
| O/U 3.5 | 33¢ | −12pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x98d154f4c4bb7c2b66182dc2f3d72bc7c8379303b0f982d9eaf8c58fcac6b08e |
| Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) | 26¢ | +2pp | $145 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0xf1af7e76b5f612b2db6a6c97135610748bed156e0d53657b80b9606fff20d3eb |
| O/U 4.5 | 16¢ | −4pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x6a8a2cf5caf669345eb383b4631cac4ee8362632922d5b5900d6dc65929d8c19 |
| Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5) | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x1b0e32e37102037daa3550e288af3d55ec5d565b7c6a73b7aa3beadd95bb2796 |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5) | 9¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0xe11960b8f52d27d397d0f52113c1b9677b9c2039c0a13ab1240e14893d6ffa57 |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | +7pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0xb8c02e3cff7d086dc21481026ab1972fc9fbd3416c008fab1abc369026a55fea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 76 | 56 | 51 |
| 2026-05-18 | 76 | 56 | 50 |
| 2026-05-19 | 67 | 51 | 34 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-19 · O/U 2.5 −16pp 50→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-18 · Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5) −14pp 23→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-19 · O/U 3.5 −12pp 31→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-19 · O/U 1.5 −9pp 76→67¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-18 · Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5) −9pp 18→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 54% probability reflects market expectations that both Qingdao Xihaian FC and Beijing Guoan FC will score in their upcoming match. The prediction is driven primarily by the teams' recent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities in Chinese Super League play. Market pricing suggests traders view a high-scoring contest as more likely than low-scoring outcomes, with minimal trading activity on spread markets indicating less conviction around decisive victory margins. The match result will resolve this question definitively on its scheduled date. Liquidity concentration in the both-teams-to-score contract ($2,591 in 24-hour volume) versus near-zero activity on spreads suggests this is the primary focus of market participants assessing this fixture.

### Key factors

- Qingdao Xihaian FC's recent goals-for and goals-against rates in their last 5-10 matches compared to Beijing Guoan FC's defensive record
- Beijing Guoan FC's home or away status in this fixture, as venue historically affects offensive and defensive performance in Chinese football
- Both teams' current injury status affecting key attacking or defensive players, which materially impacts scoring likelihood
- Head-to-head scoring patterns in previous meetings between these clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- Recent league-wide trends in both-teams-to-score frequency for matches involving teams in similar competitive standing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

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