# Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC

> Qingdao Xihaian FC leads at 45%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:59.381Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Qingdao Xihaian FC at 45%
- Runner-up: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $106

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Xihaian FC | 45¢ | −2pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-qingdao-polymarket-0x5734d6c26535c770891eec79ec054a0c2e07aa03c8d220cd11af7d0f2d8fd64b |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC | 28¢ | +2pp | $68 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-tianjin-polymarket-0x2991179aa767ba457eea1f77fde7ffa39648cedc64a7c5bb309627b9544ea858 |
| Draw (Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC) | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-draw-qi-polymarket-0x47b594ce43080cb4d7aa3437b3f51532904a36f95902d374e833e42983618c5a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Qingdao Xihaian FC | Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC | Draw (Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 42 | 29 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 26 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 46 | 28 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Qingdao Xihaian FC +6pp 42→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC −3pp 29→26¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's current assessment that Qingdao Xihaian FC has a 45% chance of defeating Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC in their upcoming match. Qingdao is priced as the favorite, but the market assigns Tianjin meaningful probability at 28%, suggesting genuine competitive uncertainty. The probability reflects recent team form, head-to-head records, and squad composition. Resolution will occur upon match completion, which determines a winner-take-all outcome across the three bound contracts. The relatively modest 24-hour trading volume ($33 on the leader contract) suggests limited recent conviction in either direction, leaving room for probability shifts as match day approaches or new information about injuries or lineups emerges.

### Key factors

- Current implied probability gap of 17 percentage points between Qingdao (45%) and Tianjin (28%) indicates moderate but not overwhelming market confidence in Qingdao's advantage
- Recent 24-hour volumes ($33 for Qingdao, $91 for Tianjin combined across contracts) show higher activity on Tianjin contracts relative to market consensus, potentially signaling contrarian positioning
- The over/under 2.5 goals contract at 47¢ suggests relatively balanced expectations around match scoring, which could constrain volatility in directional bets
- Head-to-head record and current league standings between the two clubs would establish baseline form differential driving the 17-point spread
- Injury reports or squad availability announcements before match day represent the most likely catalyst for probability re-evaluation given low current trading conviction

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc

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