# Will PLQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 3 contracts — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/quebecassembly
Updated: 2026-07-09T22:20:49.243Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-05

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAQ | 16¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-caq-win-the-2026-quebec-national-assembly-ele-kalshi-kxquebecassembly-26oct05-caq |
| PLQ | 12¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-plq-win-the-2026-quebec-national-assembly-ele-kalshi-kxquebecassembly-26oct05-plq |
| PQ | 61¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pq-win-the-2026-quebec-national-assembly-elec-kalshi-kxquebecassembly-26oct05-pq |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 47 |
| 2026-06-25 | 16 |
| 2026-07-03 | 59 |
| 2026-07-07 | 30 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-03 · PQ −9pp 68→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · CAQ +3pp 13→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · PLQ −3pp 16→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 32% probability represents the chance that the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election. The current odds reflect PLQ's position as a significant but not favored contender in a competitive three-way race involving the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and Québec Solidaire (QS). The probability would likely shift based on polling trends, leadership changes, or major policy announcements from any of the three main parties. The election date itself—scheduled for October 3, 2026—represents the key event that will resolve this contract. Between now and then, federal-provincial dynamics, economic conditions, and campaign momentum could substantially move these odds.

### Key factors

- Current polling shows PLQ third or competitive second depending on methodology, with typical support ranges between 25-35% in recent surveys
- The CAQ, as the incumbent government, holds structural advantages but faces potential anti-incumbent sentiment after the 2022 election
- Québec Solidaire has mobilized younger voters and environmentally-conscious segments, potentially fragmenting the center-left vote that PLQ traditionally relied upon
- Leadership credibility and campaign execution will be critical; any major scandal or policy gaffe could significantly shift voter allocation
- The October 3, 2026 election date is fixed, making this a binary resolution event with no possibility of postponement or extension

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/quebecassembly
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=quebecassembly
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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