# Querétaro FC vs. CF Cruz Azul

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 11 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/quertaro-fc-vs-cf-cruz-azul
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:20:56.323Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 3% / Polymarket 28% — 25pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 3¢ | −6pp | $941 | kalshi | /markets/will-cruz-azul-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-cruz-azul-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-cra |
| Winner: Cruz Azul | 32¢ | −19pp | $118 | polymarket | /markets/liga-mx-winner-cruz-azul-polymarket-0xabb43b06e7395ba64710440c817ba9a0d9f2e060bf79c3b852b758e0c68d0d0a |
| Cruzeiro EC | 38¢ | −2pp | $102 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-cruzeiro-ec-polymarket-0xd752fa28fa9f7e7604ed1798ca5cae8d43b295e23ae4f7760be2c8e39120fd21 |
| O/U 2.5 | 45¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x164f43ce7d33f14d2354498cca82981a89108d89e5307ca5643ba6fa232e5e38 |
| CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x49cffaca26e5e3c0cba9192ada82a59cb714e96f7423af67992fb77b31da0f8c |
| Draw (CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-draw-cd-univ-polymarket-0xad799613dfc60801047dedeee3bb3f8a3d581e99b9e8cc1f0ce96c5525a8ab4b |
| CD Universidad Católica (-2.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x34cc52af92fd22facecab82444be83c5c419ddbc61c78acd8335b86e7f0f06dd |
| Cruzeiro EC (-2.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x3e4bfc6c120a70f2889df5649df1af0ebb4d2b13b09aff89a35f48b860b877e0 |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x31951d2799e3e0398cb83cd160ba9c30e693bd31ac882b8c695641ddb549fba5 |
| Both Teams to Score | 55¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0xb669de478d0b7262fc30fed5c561c0c2834e836ba14fd3a698670dcb88721baf |
| CD Universidad Católica | 31¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-cd-universid-polymarket-0xd2fbb137201cc3ee94532f4c623ac76b8aedfe14d74b02c60633472a1e5754bd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 16 |
| 2026-04-19 | 12 |
| 2026-04-26 | 23 |
| 2026-05-03 | 22 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Winner: Cruz Azul −20pp 34→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: Cruz Azul −19pp 25→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Cruz Azul −10pp 20→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Cruz Azul +7pp 9→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Cruz Azul +7pp 10→17¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/quertaro-fc-vs-cf-cruz-azul
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=quertaro-fc-vs-cf-cruz-azul

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.