# Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3500 total shipments in Q1 2026

> Closed. Final outcome: Above 3300. Last odds frozen 2 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/race
Updated: 2026-05-06T12:50:43.636Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-06-04

## Headline

- Leader: Above 3200 at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 3400 at 69%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K
- Resolved: Above 3300

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3200 | 92¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-3200-total-shipments-kalshi-kxrace-26mayship-3200 |
| Above 3400 | 69¢ | −2pp | $680 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-3400-total-shipments-kalshi-kxrace-26mayship-3400 |
| Above 3300 | 69¢ | +3pp | $126 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-3300-total-shipments-kalshi-kxrace-26mayship-3300 |
| above 3500 | 14¢ | +3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-3500-total-shipments-kalshi-kxrace-26mayship-3500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 3200 | Above 3400 | Above 3300 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 82 | 55 | 72 |
| 2026-04-24 | 93 | 77 | 84 |
| 2026-05-02 | 97 | 77 | 85 |
| 2026-05-03 | 97 | 75 | 88 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · above 3500 +3pp 30→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Above 3400 +3pp 74→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Above 3300 −3pp 88→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Above 3300 +3pp 85→88¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 96% probability that Ferrari will report above 3,500 total shipments in Q1 2026. The high probability reflects confidence in Ferrari meeting or exceeding this threshold, likely based on historical delivery patterns and existing order backlogs. The key factors driving this estimate include Ferrari's production capacity, recent quarterly shipment trends, and any supply chain disruptions affecting manufacturing. The resolution will occur when Ferrari publishes its Q1 2026 earnings report, typically in late April or early May 2026, which will provide the official shipment count. Market movements would primarily reflect updated production data, supply chain news, or management guidance that suggests actual Q1 shipments could fall below the 3,500 threshold.

### Key factors

- Ferrari's historical quarterly shipment volumes and whether Q1 2026 shows typical seasonal patterns or anomalies
- Supply chain status for key components and any production line disruptions reported between now and quarter-end
- Order backlog size and customer delivery schedules as of early 2026
- Any management guidance or preliminary production announcements that would indicate track-to-target status
- Currency fluctuations or market conditions that might affect delivery timing or customer acceptance

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/race
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=race

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.