# Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13800 total car shipments in 2026

> Above 13000 leads at 96%, runner-up 92% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/racea
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:50.104Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 13000 at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 13100 at 92%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 13000 | 96¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-13000-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-13000 |
| Above 13100 | 92¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-13100-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-13100 |
| Above 13300 | 90¢ | +1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-13300-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-13300 |
| Above 13200 | 90¢ | +1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-13200-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-13200 |
| Above 13400 | 85¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-13400-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-13400 |
| Above 13500 | 70¢ | +8pp | $158 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-13500-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-13500 |
| Above 13600 | 61¢ | +23pp | $188 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-13600-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-13600 |
| Above 13700 | 33¢ | +2pp | $111 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-13700-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-13700 |
| Above 13800 | 13¢ | +12pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-13800-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-13800 |
| Above 13900 | 9¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-13900-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-13900 |
| Above 14000 | 9¢ | +32pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-14000-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-14000 |
| Above 14100 | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-14100-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-14100 |
| Above 14200 | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-nv-report-above-14200-total-car-shipm-kalshi-kxracea-28janship-14200 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 13000 | Above 13100 | Above 13300 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 94 | 92 | 84 |
| 2026-06-24 | 96 | 94 | 89 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 92 | 90 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 14000 +32pp 7→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 13600 +23pp 39→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 13800 +12pp 14→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 13400 +10pp 72→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 13900 +8pp 9→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are assigning a 94% probability that Ferrari will deliver more than 13,800 cars in 2026, based on aggregated derivatives pricing. This reflects confidence in Ferrari's ability to meet or exceed this shipment threshold in the coming year. The probability is driven primarily by Ferrari's recent production trajectory and announced capacity plans, balanced against supply-chain risks and potential demand softening in luxury vehicle markets. The resolution hinges on Ferrari's official 2026 shipment report, typically disclosed in early 2027 as part of annual financial results. Uncertainty could shift substantially if the company provides revised production guidance or if broader automotive demand signals deteriorate meaningfully before year-end.

### Key factors

- Ferrari's 2025 production run and stated capacity targets for 2026 will anchor baseline expectations for annual shipment volume
- Luxury vehicle demand in key markets (Europe, Asia, North America) through Q4 2026 will determine whether Ferrari can sustain or accelerate delivery rates
- Supply-chain stability for specialized components and materials will constrain upside production capacity if disruptions occur
- The wider price curve shows 90% probability for >13,200 units but only 13% for >13,900, indicating tight consensus around 13,500–13,800 shipments
- Quarterly delivery reports or production updates released before year-end 2026 could significantly shift market expectations if actual pace diverges from current trajectory

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/racea
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=racea

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.