# Rain in Austin in Apr 2026

> Above 3 inches leads at 85%, runner-up 55% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rainausm
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.238Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 3 inches at 85%
- Runner-up: Above 4 inches at 55%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $492

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 inches | 85¢ | +1pp | $184 | kalshi | /markets/rain-in-austin-in-may-2026-above-3-inches-kalshi-kxrainausm-26may-3 |
| Above 4 inches | 55¢ | −2pp | $219 | kalshi | /markets/rain-in-austin-in-may-2026-above-4-inches-kalshi-kxrainausm-26may-4 |
| Above 5 inches | 36¢ | −5pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/rain-in-austin-in-may-2026-above-5-inches-kalshi-kxrainausm-26may-5 |
| Above 6 inches | 20¢ | −2pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/rain-in-austin-in-may-2026-above-6-inches-kalshi-kxrainausm-26may-6 |
| Above 7 inches | 6¢ | −5pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/rain-in-austin-in-may-2026-above-7-inches-kalshi-kxrainausm-26may-7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 3 inches | Above 4 inches | Above 5 inches |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 88 | 71 | 56 |
| 2026-05-02 | 95 | 66 | 47 |
| 2026-05-03 | 92 | 70 | 48 |
| 2026-05-06 | 87 | 65 | 45 |
| 2026-05-07 | 87 | 63 | 44 |
| 2026-05-08 | 88 | — | 39 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Above 5 inches −9pp 56→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Above 3 inches +7pp 88→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Above 4 inches −5pp 71→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above 4 inches −5pp 70→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above 3 inches −5pp 92→87¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rainausm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rainausm

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.