# Rain in Los Angeles in Apr 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rainlaxm
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.337Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $615

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 3¢ | ±0 | $615 | kalshi | /markets/rain-in-los-angeles-in-may-2026-above-1-inch-kalshi-kxrainlaxm-26may-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 5 |
| 2026-05-02 | 5 |
| 2026-05-08 | 4 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 7% probability indicates traders estimate roughly a 1-in-14 chance that Los Angeles will receive more than 1 inch of rain during May 2026. The forecast reflects May's typical weather patterns in Southern California, where precipitation is uncommon as the region transitions into its dry season. The probability could shift based on evolving seasonal weather models and any changes to the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The resolution will depend on official rainfall measurements from National Weather Service stations in the Los Angeles area recorded during May 1-31, 2026. Trading volumes remain modest, suggesting limited market interest or high consensus around this outcome.

### Key factors

- May is historically Los Angeles' driest month, with average rainfall under 0.1 inches
- Seasonal weather pattern forecasts issued in late April-early May 2026 will be the primary new information available to traders
- Any subtropical moisture systems or Pacific storms tracking toward Southern California in late April would be visible in extended forecasts and could shift probabilities upward
- The tiered outcomes (1 inch vs. 2 inches) show traders view >2 inches as substantially less likely (3% price) than >1 inch (7% price)
- Official NWS Los Angeles precipitation data measured at designated stations will serve as the definitive resolution source

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rainlaxm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rainlaxm

## License

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