# Rain in NYC in Apr 2026

> Above 1 inches leads at 95%, runner-up 81% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rainnycm
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.338Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1 inches at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 2 inches at 81%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $273

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inches | 95¢ | ±0 | $7 | kalshi | /markets/rain-in-nyc-in-may-2026-above-1-inches-kalshi-kxrainnycm-26may-1 |
| Above 2 inches | 81¢ | +5pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/rain-in-nyc-in-may-2026-above-2-inches-kalshi-kxrainnycm-26may-2 |
| Above 3 inches | 54¢ | +5pp | $149 | kalshi | /markets/rain-in-nyc-in-may-2026-above-3-inches-kalshi-kxrainnycm-26may-3 |
| Above 4 inches | 28¢ | −2pp | $93 | kalshi | /markets/rain-in-nyc-in-may-2026-above-4-inches-kalshi-kxrainnycm-26may-4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1 inches | Above 2 inches | Above 3 inches |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 26 | 25 | 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | 96 | 83 | 50 |
| 2026-05-07 | 95 | 78 | 49 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 83 | 54 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Above 3 inches −12pp 59→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above 4 inches −10pp 36→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Above 3 inches +9pp 50→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Above 3 inches −7pp 57→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Above 2 inches +7pp 76→83¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rainnycm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rainnycm

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.