# Will Nithya Raman beat Spencer Pratt by 1.0 to 2.0 points in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary

> Closed. Last odds frozen 17 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ramanprattdiff
Updated: 2026-06-28T13:20:52.091Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-06-05

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman, 3-4% | 97¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-nithya-raman-beat-spencer-pratt-by-30-to-40-p-kalshi-kxramanprattdiff-26jun05-nram3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 9 |
| 2026-06-15 | 97 |
| 2026-06-16 | 99 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract measures the likelihood that Nithya Raman finishes exactly 1.0 to 2.0 percentage points ahead of Spencer Pratt in the Los Angeles mayoral primary. The 12% probability reflects that a narrow margin victory in this specific range is one of several possible outcomes, though the overall distribution suggests tighter races are priced lower and wider margins slightly higher. The primary result itself—scheduled for June 2026—will directly resolve this contract. Before then, polling trends, candidate spending, and voter turnout patterns in Los Angeles will inform market expectations about whether these two candidates finish in this particular point spread.

### Key factors

- The LA mayoral primary is the direct catalyst event; any current polls suggest Raman and Pratt are not top-tier frontrunners, limiting the probability of them both placing in the final results
- Related 1-point-margin contracts are priced at 17¢ (0-1 pt) and 15¢ (2-3 pt), indicating the 1-2 pt range sits between tighter and slightly wider margins in market expectations
- Voting patterns in Los Angeles municipal elections, including turnout and geographic support distribution, will determine whether these candidates' margins fall into this specific band rather than others
- The combined probability across all Raman-beats-Pratt margins (0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 4-5, 5-6 points) appears modest relative to other possible race outcomes
- Market volume is concentrated in the 0-1 point range ($1,298), suggesting traders see a close contest between these two as most likely if they both finish in primary calculations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ramanprattdiff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ramanprattdiff
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.