# Will Choosin' Texas be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 3 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ranklist1song
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.003Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-25

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $13K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I Knew It, I Knew You | 14¢ | −9pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-i-knew-it-i-knew-you-be-1-on-the-billboard-ho-kalshi-kxranklist1song-26jul25-ikn |
| Choosin' Texas | 81¢ | +2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-choosin-texas-be-1-on-the-billboard-hot-100-i-kalshi-kxranklist1song-26jul25-cho |
| stupid song | 3¢ | ±0 | $244 | kalshi | /markets/will-stupid-song-be-1-on-the-billboard-hot-100-in-kalshi-kxranklist1song-26jul25-stu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | 37 |
| 2026-06-19 | 47 |
| 2026-06-26 | 50 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · I Knew It, I Knew You −40pp 83→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · I Knew It, I Knew You −27pp 43→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Choosin' Texas +20pp 36→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · stupid song −19pp 22→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · I Knew It, I Knew You +12pp 60→72¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 4% chance that the song 'Choosin' Texas' reaches the number-one position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart during May 2026. The low probability reflects that achieving the top spot requires sustained commercial success across radio, streaming, and sales metrics simultaneously, which most releases fail to achieve. The probability would increase if the song demonstrates momentum in streaming charts, radio airplay growth, or unexpected viral popularity in the weeks leading up to chart publication dates in May. The key driver of resolution will be the Billboard Hot 100 rankings released throughout May 2026, which aggregate sales, streaming, and radio data to determine weekly chart positions. Historical chart data shows that songs typically need weeks of building popularity or major promotional events to reach number one.

### Key factors

- Current streaming and radio chart positioning of 'Choosin' Texas' as of late April 2026
- Whether the song's artist or label launches significant promotional campaigns or marketing pushes during May 2026
- Competitive landscape: the number and strength of other songs competing for the top position during May 2026
- Historical track record of songs by the same artist reaching or approaching top-ten chart positions
- Weekly Billboard Hot 100 publications throughout May 2026 showing actual chart progression and performance metrics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ranklist1song
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ranklist1song

## License

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