# Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB

> 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jaxson Dart leads at 24%, runner-up 8% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ranklistffqb
Updated: 2026-07-13T03:20:49.968Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-01

## Headline

- Leader: 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jaxson Dart at 24%
- Runner-up: 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Justin Herbert at 8%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $188

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jaxson Dart | 24¢ | +23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-fantasy-football-2026-27-season-top-qb-kalshi-kxranklistffqb-27-jdart6 |
| 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Justin Herbert | 8¢ | +1pp | $71 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-fantasy-football-2026-27-season-top-qb-kalshi-kxranklistffqb-27-jherbert10 |
| 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Kyler Murray | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-fantasy-football-2026-27-season-top-qb-kalshi-kxranklistffqb-27-kmurray1 |
| 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jalen Hurts | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-fantasy-football-2026-27-season-top-qb-kalshi-kxranklistffqb-27-jhurts1 |
| 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Josh Allen | 6¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-fantasy-football-2026-27-season-top-qb-kalshi-kxranklistffqb-27-jallen17 |
| 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Lamar Jackson | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-fantasy-football-2026-27-season-top-qb-kalshi-kxranklistffqb-27-ljackson8 |
| 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jordan Love | 4¢ | — | $117 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-fantasy-football-2026-27-season-top-qb-kalshi-kxranklistffqb-27-jlove10 |
| 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Matthew Stafford | 4¢ | −22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-fantasy-football-2026-27-season-top-qb-kalshi-kxranklistffqb-27-mstafford9 |
| 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jayden Daniels | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-fantasy-football-2026-27-season-top-qb-kalshi-kxranklistffqb-27-jdaniels5 |
| 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Caleb Williams | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-fantasy-football-2026-27-season-top-qb-kalshi-kxranklistffqb-27-cwilliams18 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jaxson Dart | 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Justin Herbert | 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Kyler Murray |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | — | — | 8 |
| 2026-07-01 | — | 6 | — |
| 2026-07-05 | 1 | — | — |
| 2026-07-06 | 24 | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | 7 | — |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-06 · 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jaxson Dart +23pp 1→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Josh Allen +14pp 5→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Bo Nix is assigned a 19% probability of finishing as the top fantasy quarterback in the 2026-27 NFL season, reflecting market expectations about his scoring output relative to established alternatives. This probability reflects ongoing uncertainty about Nix's performance trajectory following his rookie season, balanced against the established track records of veterans like Josh Allen (5% implied) and Brock Purdy (8% implied). The probability would rise if preseason indicators suggest sustained improvement or if injury concerns affect competing quarterbacks; it would decline if statistical projections or training camp reports suggest stronger-than-expected performance from rivals. The resolution will depend entirely on cumulative passing yards, touchdowns, and league scoring formats during the 2026-17 regular season, with clarity emerging gradually through the season rather than on a single event date.

### Key factors

- Bo Nix's actual 2025-26 season performance and statistical trajectory compared to competing quarterbacks heading into 2026-17
- Injury status and availability of higher-priced competitors, particularly Josh Allen and Brock Purdy, through preseason and into the regular season
- League-wide passing volume trends and offensive scheme fit for Nix's team relative to peers with higher current market valuations
- Preseason performance metrics and official depth charts that indicate expanded or diminished playing time and opportunity for Nix
- Changes to fantasy scoring rules or league format that could advantage rushing-oriented versus pure passing quarterbacks

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ranklistffqb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ranklistffqb

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.