# Will She & Him be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in April 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 13 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ranklistsongspotusa
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:58.026Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $41K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | 92¢ | +8pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-top-songs-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-dra |
| Morgan Wallen | 10¢ | −1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-morgan-wallen-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-t-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-mor |
| Noah Kahan | 8¢ | −11pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-noah-kahan-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-top-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-noa |
| Taylor Swift | 58¢ | +4pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-to-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-tay |
| BTS | 3¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-bts-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-top-songs-u-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-bts |
| Michael Jackson | 8¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-jackson-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-mic |
| Justin Bieber | 6¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-bieber-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-t-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-jus |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 3¢ | −14pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-sabrina-carpenter-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-dai-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-sab |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 66¢ | +3pp | $986 | kalshi | /markets/will-olivia-rodrigo-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-olii |
| Bruno Mars | 6¢ | +1pp | $983 | kalshi | /markets/will-bruno-mars-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-top-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-bru |
| Charli xcx | 3¢ | −1pp | $306 | kalshi | /markets/will-charli-xcx-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-top-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-cha |
| Olivia Dean | 3¢ | +1pp | $235 | kalshi | /markets/will-olivia-dean-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-top-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-oli |
| Ariana Grande | 6¢ | −28pp | $234 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-t-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-ari |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 21 |
| 2026-04-30 | 24 |
| 2026-05-01 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | 24 |
| 2026-05-03 | 35 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Ariana Grande −28pp 43→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Taylor Swift +25pp 15→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Sabrina Carpenter −19pp 42→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Olivia Rodrigo −18pp 72→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Sabrina Carpenter −14pp 20→6¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ranklistsongspotusa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ranklistsongspotusa

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.