# Will the Fed cut rates 1 times

> Exactly 0 cuts leads at 77%, runner-up 13% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ratecutcount
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.337Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Exactly 0 cuts at 77%
- Runner-up: Exactly 1 cut at 13%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $19K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 cuts | 77¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fed-cut-rates-0-times-exactly-0-cuts-kalshi-kxratecutcount-26dec31-t0 |
| Exactly 1 cut | 13¢ | −2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fed-cut-rates-1-times-exactly-1-cut-kalshi-kxratecutcount-26dec31-t1 |
| Exactly 2 cuts | 5¢ | ±0 | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fed-cut-rates-2-times-exactly-2-cuts-kalshi-kxratecutcount-26dec31-t2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exactly 0 cuts | Exactly 1 cut | Exactly 2 cuts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 65 | 16 | — |
| 2026-05-29 | 64 | 17 | 8 |
| 2026-06-12 | 75 | 16 | 5 |
| 2026-06-19 | 77 | 16 | 6 |
| 2026-06-25 | 78 | 17 | 5 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 15 | 5 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Exactly 0 cuts −3pp 77→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability measures whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates exactly once during 2026. The 54% figure reflects market expectation that no cuts will occur, suggesting traders view current monetary policy as appropriately restrictive. The market is pricing in highly divergent scenarios: a 4% probability of a June 2026 cut signals minimal near-term easing expectations, while the 46% probability assigned to any cuts before 2027 indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether the Fed pauses rate cuts or holds steady throughout 2026. The primary drivers are inflation trajectories and labor market strength; persistent inflation or robust employment would support the zero-cut scenario, while economic weakening or disinflation could trigger multiple reductions. The June 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting represents the most immediate catalyst for probability shifts.

### Key factors

- June 2026 FOMC meeting is priced at only 4% probability for a 25bps cut, indicating market consensus expects no imminent action
- The zero-cuts contract (54%) outprices any specific multi-cut scenario, suggesting traders view extended pause as baseline outcome
- Inflation data releases between now and June 2026 will be the primary driver of probability movement, particularly PCE and CPI reports
- Labor market indicators including employment reports and wage growth will influence whether the market maintains the restrictive-hold view
- The 46% probability for any cuts before 2027 creates an asymmetric distribution where most non-zero scenarios cluster at 0 cuts rather than spreading across 1, 2, or 3-cut outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ratecutcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ratecutcount
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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