# RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC

> RB Ōmiya Ardija leads at 47%, runner-up 37% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:50:10.131Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: RB Ōmiya Ardija at 47%
- Runner-up: Iwaki FC at 37%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Ōmiya Ardija | 47¢ | ±0 | $13 | polymarket | /markets/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc-rb-miya-ardija-polymarket-0xa076bae09dc85da4c9c4dc5acf4ecd65494521eb7dec3b307865b59315c82f3d |
| Iwaki FC | 37¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc-iwaki-fc-polymarket-0x3cb1b6a8097fd4f3d05c536f8df73d203a33e07447bae2776b92160617b05a45 |
| Draw (RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC) | 34¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc-draw-rb-miya-ardija-vs-polymarket-0x781d0d2c57f61021bbc42af9936438334bd8b67fcbc60fef713b051f09adb52e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | RB Ōmiya Ardija | Iwaki FC | Draw (RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 46 | 39 | 35 |
| 2026-05-03 | 46 | 39 | 35 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 39% probability reflects market expectations that Iwaki FC will win an upcoming match against RB Ōmiya Ardija. The market is pricing Iwaki FC as a slight favorite, with the runner-up outcome at 35%, indicating genuine uncertainty about the result. Current pricing suggests Iwaki FC has a modest edge in expected performance, though the narrow gap between top outcomes means the match remains competitive. The probability would shift higher if Iwaki FC demonstrates form advantages or Ōmiya faces key absences, and would decline if Ōmiya shows stronger recent performance or home-field advantage proves significant. Resolution occurs after the match is played and the final result is official.

### Key factors

- Recent form and league position of both teams heading into the match
- Home/away status and historical head-to-head performance in this fixture
- Injury status and player availability for both squads
- Relative strength of attack and defense metrics for each team this season
- Market liquidity is extremely low ($0 24h volume), indicating limited trader confidence or interest in this specific matchup

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc

## License

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