# Will Roblox Corporation report Above 170 million daily active users in fiscal 2026

> Above 145 million leads at 37%, runner-up 28% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rblxa
Updated: 2026-08-10T15:20:50.828Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-12

## Headline

- Leader: Above 145 million at 37%
- Runner-up: Above 135 billion at 28%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $25

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 145 million | 37¢ | +1pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-145-million-d-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febdau-145000000 |
| Above 135 billion | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-135-billion-h-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febhours-135000000000 |
| Above 150 million | 24¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-150-million-d-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febdau-150000000 |
| Above 140 billion | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-140-billion-h-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febhours-140000000000 |
| Above 155 million | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-155-million-d-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febdau-155000000 |
| Above 145 billion | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-145-billion-h-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febhours-145000000000 |
| Above 150 billion | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-150-billion-h-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febhours-150000000000 |
| Above 160 million | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-160-million-d-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febdau-160000000 |
| Above 155 billion | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-155-billion-h-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febhours-155000000000 |
| Above 165 million | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-165-million-d-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febdau-165000000 |
| Above 160 billion | 4¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-160-billion-h-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febhours-160000000000 |
| Above 170 million | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roblox-corporation-report-above-170-million-d-kalshi-kxrblxa-27febdau-170000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 145 million | Above 135 billion | Above 150 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 14 | 36 | 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | 36 | 28 | 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | 37 | 28 | 24 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 66% likelihood that Roblox will report above 170 million daily active users in fiscal 2026, based on trading activity across 14 related contracts. The probability reflects expectations about Roblox's user growth trajectory relative to historical performance and platform maturation. Currently, traders are more confident in the platform hitting 150 million DAU (priced at 25%) than 170 million (priced at 3%), suggesting meaningful uncertainty about whether growth will accelerate beyond recent trends. The outcome will be determined by Roblox's official fiscal 2026 earnings report, which typically arrives in early 2027. Key drivers include whether Roblox successfully expands into new geographic markets, retains user engagement across age cohorts, and executes on platform monetization improvements—all factors visible in their quarterly disclosures leading up to the final report.

### Key factors

- Roblox's most recent quarterly DAU figures and year-over-year growth rate relative to the 170 million threshold
- Trading volume disparity: the 170M contract trades at only 3¢ versus 25¢ for 150M, indicating concentrated skepticism about aggressive growth
- Historical seasonality and retention patterns in Roblox user metrics across fiscal quarters
- Competitive dynamics with other user-generated content platforms and their ability to retain younger demographics
- Roblox management guidance or forward-looking statements about engagement and user acquisition in their upcoming earnings calls

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rblxa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rblxa

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.