# Will Reddit Inc. report Above 120 million daily active uniques in Q1 2026

> above 128 million leads at 94%, runner-up 85% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rddt
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.377Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-29

## Headline

- Leader: above 128 million at 94%
- Runner-up: above 129 million at 85%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above 128 million | 94¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-reddit-inc-report-above-128-million-daily-act-kalshi-kxrddt-26juldau-p128000000 |
| above 129 million | 85¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-reddit-inc-report-above-129-million-daily-act-kalshi-kxrddt-26juldau-p129000000 |
| above 130 million | 73¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-reddit-inc-report-above-130-million-daily-act-kalshi-kxrddt-26juldau-p130000000 |
| above 131 million | 61¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-reddit-inc-report-above-131-million-daily-act-kalshi-kxrddt-26juldau-p131000000 |
| Above 131.5 million | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-reddit-inc-report-above-1315-million-daily-ac-kalshi-kxrddt-26juldau-131500000 |
| above 132 million | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-reddit-inc-report-above-132-million-daily-act-kalshi-kxrddt-26juldau-p132000000 |
| above 133 million | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-reddit-inc-report-above-133-million-daily-act-kalshi-kxrddt-26juldau-p133000000 |
| above 134 million | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-reddit-inc-report-above-134-million-daily-act-kalshi-kxrddt-26juldau-p134000000 |
| above 135 million | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-reddit-inc-report-above-135-million-daily-act-kalshi-kxrddt-26juldau-p135000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | above 128 million | above 129 million | above 130 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 95 | 86 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 94 | 85 | 73 |
| 2026-06-28 | 95 | — | — |
| 2026-06-29 | — | 84 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 95 | 85 | 73 |
| 2026-07-06 | — | 85 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 95 | — | 73 |
| 2026-07-12 | 95 | 85 | 73 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Reddit will report at least 120 million daily active uniques in its Q1 2026 results. The 40% probability suggests market participants view this threshold as moderately unlikely. Reddit's user growth trajectory, monetization efforts, and competitive pressures from other social platforms drive expectations. The key uncertainty is whether Reddit's recent momentum—including AI partnership announcements and API pricing changes—has translated into sustained daily active user growth. Reddit typically reports Q1 earnings in late April or early May, with the exact reporting date and earnings release serving as the primary catalyst for resolution. The contract hinges on whether Reddit's disclosed metrics meet this specific DAU benchmark, regardless of other business performance indicators.

### Key factors

- Reddit's Q1 2026 DAU reporting date and official disclosure methodology
- Historical DAU growth rate and whether recent quarters showed acceleration or deceleration
- Impact of Reddit's API pricing changes and third-party app policies on user retention and engagement
- Competitive dynamics with TikTok, X/Twitter, and other social platforms affecting daily active user migration
- Reddit's geographic user distribution and whether growth concentrates in high or low-engagement regions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rddt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rddt

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.